Retail Unwrapped from The Robin Report

Southdale Center Turns 70; Then What?

Sanford Stein — Thu, 26 Feb 2026 05:01:00 +0000

America’s first indoor mall, Southdale Center in Edina, Minnesota, is celebrating its 70th anniversary this year. This birthday could be a litmus test of the viability of the traditional shopping mall. To ensure its relevance, owner Simon Properties just completed a $400 million renovation and new luxury wing, bringing together Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Moncler, Watches of Switzerland/Rolex, MaxMara, and David Yurman. Southdale now has the highest concentration of luxury retail in the upper Midwest and elevates the “luxe listings” above its mega-competitor Mall of America, just a few miles away. But the question remains: Will this capital infusion guarantee Southdale’s future as a 20^th-century architectural aberration in a digital/agentic age? And will chasing the top 10 percent of spenders buy Southdale and Simon time? It is by no means a guarantee of its longevity.

Can the 70-year-old Southdale Center live up to consumers’ expectations? And the answer is: Adding a new luxury wing is not a panacea for cultural relevance; today’s malls need to deliver experience and brands that are meaningful to consumers.

In the Beginning

Southdale’s origin story is a retail case study. Funded by the Dayton Development Company, it’s widely considered to be the nation’s first fully enclosed, climate-controlled shopping mall. Austrian-born architect Victor Gruen had a different vision from Dayton’s. Gruen planned for the center to be surrounded by housing, apartment buildings, schools, and medical facilities, as well as natural amenities including a lake and a park, modeled after the commerce centers of many European cities. In 1956, he was ahead of his time; the mall became…a mall.

Gruen’s original vision, now known as mixed-use development, has become the formula for the reinvention and salvation of malls like Southdale. Repositioning malls from single-purpose points of transaction into dynamic community forums promoting human interaction is the sustainable reinvention of irrelevant malls. But, given the ginormous price tag involved, there are only a finite number of malls destined for such rejuvenation. The vast majority will perish.

Class Distinctions

Between 1970 and 2002, over 800 shopping malls were built in America. Money was cheap, second-string suburbs were flourishing, and young consumers—baby boomers—were entering their prime earning years. By the mid-1990s, mall numbers peaked at over 1,500 enclosed malls. Then the tide changed. Today, approximately 700 fully enclosed malls still exist, and projections suggest that another 25 percent of these remaining centers will shutter within the next five years. Analysts predict as few as 200 survivors by the mid-2030’s.

What’s the formula for mall survival? Malls are bluntly, real estate assets. And for real estate, the age-old adage “location, location, location” is the playbook. In terms of sustainability, a mall’s age, tenant mix, occupancy rates, and institutional ownership play decisive roles in defining the ABCs of property class ranking.

The highest performing A-class malls boast premium tenants, affluent customers, and high occupancy rates (mid-high 90 percent range). Their tenants are made up of stable, national luxury and premium brands. These properties are newer or heavily renovated, located in affluent markets, typically home to Apple stores, and many are mixed-use village spaces like The Grove.
B-class malls are moderate performers, plagued by failing mid-market specialty chains. With occupancy rates of 80-90 percent, they are often found in secondary suburbs and cater to value-oriented families. They are generally older centers devoid of improvements, and many are still anchored by JCPenney.
C-class malls are the most endangered species, with 500-600 already shuttered since the mid-1990s. Occupancies are often at or below 70 percent and are considered distressed properties. They cater to highly price-sensitive shoppers with local retailers, discounters, and non-retail services.

Gruen’s Gospel

I believe the Gruen gospel of “placemaking” will ultimately determine the fate of Southdale and the rest of the remaining A-class malls. Their ownership is concentrated among a small number of deep-pocketed development and management companies, including Simon Property Group, Brookfield Properties, Macerich, (and to a lesser extent) SITE Centers, Taubman, and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield.

It’s Simon Property Group and Brookfield Properties, who together own and control nearly half of A-class malls in the U.S. and they must concentrate on bringing their aging mall properties into the 21st century through additions, renovations, and tenant upgrades.

Southdale was completed in 1956, and the mall was just over 800,000 square feet. Today it is 60 percent larger at 1.3 million square feet. The mall’s haphazard expansion in 1963 and 1971, along with multiple renovations through the 2000s and 2010s, has resulted in a rather schizophrenic visitor experience. The current luxury wing is at odds with the rest of the mall. While the new single-level wing is upscale and polished, it feels like an island (or peninsula) unto itself. Visitors arriving through any of the mall’s other primary entrances will, no doubt, be wowed by the newly renovated center court. However, finding the new luxury wing presents a quandary, accessible exclusively via a second-level corridor.

Futureproofing an Aging Mall

All the money in the world can’t save an irrelevant mall. Some centers are destined to fail in the brutal survival of the fittest. There are core fundamentals that are prerequisites in the reimagining and futureproofing of aging malls. Will Southdale measure up?

Anchor Replacement: A mall’s once dominant department stores literally served as anchors and traffic generators, as well as magnets to attract desirable specialty stores. With their departure, similarly compelling anchor-like players must fill that role. A plethora of unlikely candidates are filling the bill today. They include high-end grocery stores, fitness and co-working centers, hotels, medical centers, “high experience” retailers, and even private clubs. Dick’s House of Sport, which has effectively replaced former Sears stores in several top-tier malls is an excellent example.

To Southdale’s credit, it has flexed its “anchor’s away” muscle. In 2019, on the site of a JCPenney store, a massive $43 million, 204,000-square-foot Life Time Fitness flagship dropped anchor. Billed as a three-story athletic resort, it included a rooftop beach club, pool, and even pickleball courts. Immediately adjacent is a 75,000 square foot Life Time luxury coworking development and indoor soccer field. Both are knockout examples of anchor replacement.

In 2024, on the site of a former Herberger’s department store, Southdale introduced a 25,000 square foot, two-level Puttshack, that bills itself as an “upscale, tech-infused” mini-golf experience. Immediately adjacent is Kowalski’s Market, a premier specialty grocer which should also generate repeat traffic. Southdale’s score: 9 out of 10.

Retail Theater and Experience Engines: The success of the reimagined mall becomes a shared proposition between landlord and tenants. In the face of unified commerce, the continued growth of online retail, augmented reality, and generative AI, brands are being forced to up their game to get folks off the couch. Becoming fully immersed in a brand’s storytelling has become the new norm. Brands like Lego, Crayola, Build-A-Bear, and Camp have become the new “play stations,” undergoing constant reinvention aimed at lengthening the customer’s visit and creating memorable moments.

With the massive popularity of the collectables market that grew by 32 percent in 2025, select specialty retailers are cashing in. Among them, CardVault, Pokémon Center, Kura Sushi gashapon, and Pop Mart. They sit at the intersection of collecting, surprise, and social sharing. They are selling sets, series, rarities, even blind boxes that foster “the chase.”

And beyond the store purchase, often viral “unboxing” follows, driving social media sharing. These brands, and others like, them populate the halls of the Mall of America, while Southdale hasn’t hopped on that brand wagon yet. Southdale’s score: 2 out of 10.

Social Interaction and Brand Activation: More than ever, brands depend on popular performers and sports figures to co-promote product drops. To that end, top malls have beefed-up marketing and event teams to facilitate high-energy, revolving events to drive traffic. Southdale currently has a considerable amount of underutilized space which could be captured for such events that bring “like-minded” groups together around a shared passion. Southdale’s score: 5 out of 10.
Food-Forward Destinations: National restaurant chains like Applebee’s will no longer cut it with new generations, proud of their food-fixated tastes. The winning ticket includes chef-driven restaurants, multicultural food halls, and experiential dining. Chef-staged, fixed-price dinners are selling out months in advance. Even ghost kitchens are being created to facilitate the preparation of Michelin Chef-quality meals for takeout or near-instant delivery to area foodies.

Southdale’s Dining Pavilion is the ghost of its former massive food court; there are plenty of tables and chairs, but light on eats. Southdale is lacking in the fine dining experience that will lure in customers. Southdale’s score: 7 out of 10.

Social Infrastructure and Walkability: Too many major malls resemble fortresses, surrounded by seas of asphalt, as vehicular access and parking overrode pedestrian friendliness during the planning process. The new mall’s viability focuses on socialization, visit duration, relaxation, and immersion. Reimagined, multi-use developments are selling off excess parking to accommodate multi-family housing. Other pedestrian-centric amenities include green spaces, walking paths, water features, community gardens, and well-equipped play areas, for folks to gather, linger, meet, and work. Southdale hasn’t begun turning parking lots into parks. With an influx of multi-family residential properties and luxury services, “greening” initiatives are a must. Southdale’s score: 5 out of 10.

Prescription

While Southdale doesn’t publish its annual visits, The Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal reported an 11 percent increase in foot traffic following the opening of the new luxury wing, which isn’t too surprising. Applying my “mall-metamorphosis metrics,” Southdale is an overachiever with its recent retail and lifestyle additions; however, it is clearly an underachiever in the rest of the crucial placemaking attributes. New retail is moving much faster than center owners, including Southdale, can anticipate and act on. Its relevance will depend on staying ahead of what customers want, not catching up to them.

There’s an AI Encouragement Gap

Jasmine Glasheen — Thu, 19 Feb 2026 05:01:00 +0000

It looks like Gen Z, the generation that’s the most politically bifurcated by gender, can now add the “AI encouragement gap” (the significant divide between the high rate at which students and employees are using Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools and the low level of support, guidance, or encouragement they receive from their institutions or employers) to their list of grievances. The chasm between a tech-savvy generation and their less tech-savvy managers is setting up a workplace showdown. As many have predicted, AI’s impact on next gen career prospects is nefarious: AI is not only snatching up entry-level roles, but it is also creating a worker-manager intelligence gap in the workplace.

Is AI changing the workplace culture? And the answer is: The generation gap at work is also causing an AI information gap; older less-tech savvy workers are unable (or unwilling) to encourage and support younger tech-savvy workers to use AI.

Next Gen Against a Wall

The gap adds to the next gen’s lack of motivation, which has led to derision from their predecessors, and they’ve been dubbed “lazy” by those who fail to understand the concept of a generational mental health crisis. Rising costs of housing amid stagnating salaries, bleak professional prospects, a contentious political landscape, and the fact that the world may burn to a crisp due to global warming have the youngest generation in the workforce feeling anxious. Gen Z is entering a job market where 35 percent of entry-level jobs require 3+ years of experience, and 45 percent of employers post ghost jobs.

McKinsey’s “Women in the Workplace 2025” report shows that gender also plays a role when it comes to seeking career advancement in our dystopian marketplace. While 88 percent of entry-level women say their career is important to them (around the same level as men), only 69 percent of entry-level women say they want a promotion, compared to 80 percent of entry-level men. And, contrary to what our AI overlords once told us, this disparity is only being exacerbated as companies add artificial intelligence to the mix. Companies are prioritizing training and encouraging men to become AI fluent over women. Early data on gender disparities in workforce AI training and encouragement show that the workplace of the future might be gender biased. McKinsey reports that fewer entry-level women (21 percent) report that their managers have encouraged them to use AI, compared with 33 percent of entry-level men. Analysts are calling AI the new “labor market currency.” If that’s true, Gen Z women will have to fight for adequate AI training, sponsorship, and encouragement, or they risk being left behind.

They Can’t Spend What They’ll Never Have

We can’t talk about Generation Z consumers without discussing their financial straits. Gen Z has the highest average personal debt of any generation, at a whopping $94,101 a pop that’s way higher than millennials ($59,181) and Gen X ($53,255). They have fewer economic prospects and are entering a stale job market that economist Diane Swonk told Fortune is “gut-wrenching” for the middle class. There’s a thin line between optimism and delusion, and next gen consumers are realists. Since they have to be ready for an uncertain future, they consume media critically and research every dollar they spend.

The “AI Encouragement Gap” Creates Generational Disconnects

While gender is perhaps the most concerning factor impacting AI adoption in the workplace, it doesn’t stand alone: age, confidence, and politics surrounding AI adoption also play a role. Even the gender factor is layered. Employers aren’t encouraging women to learn AI technologies in the same way, but women are also more reluctant to adopt AI into their daily workflow. The key issue is that while a majority of students may use AI, just a few feel their organization encourages its use. This puts the generational digital divide in stark contrast. Next gens may look at their older colleagues as out of touch with technology, which leads to the encouragement gap: You can’t teach what you don’t know.

A Gender Bias Culture

So, how does gender bias come into play? Although only 7 percent of Gen Z consumers identify as non-binary, those who do subscribe to gender norms are more divided than ever in political leanings, policy, and even in the media they consume. Consider that 80 percent of “The Joe Rogan Experience” listeners are men, while 70 percent of progressive-leaning “Call Her Daddy” listeners are women. They’re even using different platforms, with men outnumbering women by two to one on X and Reddit.

Gen Z women entering the workforce today find their optimistic enthusiasm quickly mitigated by reality. While most companies still say they are committed to fostering an inclusive culture, few are equally committed to giving women equal career advancement opportunities as men, particularly at entry and senior levels. As a result, Gen Z women who are entering the workforce are screaming from the rafters that career milestones that felt attainable to their predecessors don’t feel attainable for them. Fortune blames this disparity on “pessimism,” which would imply next gen’s bleak career prospects are just a matter of perspective, but the truth is more complex.

Grim Career Prospects Dampen Next Gen Spend

Gen Z purchasing behavior is characterized by frugality and underconsumption. They aren’t the only ones clutching their wallets. Millennials are scaling back, too, and consumer confidence across the board recently plunged to a 12-year low. Speaking of millennials, Gen Z watched us go through recessions, pandemics, government shutdowns, and the advent of AI. When they see their university degree-holding predecessors struggle to leverage their decades in the workforce to make a liveable wage, it’s hard to believe in their own career prospects. After all, millennials started our careers when the job market was rife with opportunities, whereas all Gen Z knows is an Orwellian present.

You may think that, AI encouragement gap aside, at least Gen Z can look forward to a prosperous future, but future employment prospects are equally grim. Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei say that “jobless growth” will be the new normal. The middle class is eroding, and Gen Z literally cannot afford to spend like their predecessors did at their age. They’ve had to learn to express individuality in new ways: Showing off their taste through vintage finds and books rather than a prestige label. They are running marathons over buying Birkins.

When AI fluency defines our corporate future, unplugging may be the greatest form of luxury. How to individuate in a culture dominated by AI? Next gens are buying to express their individuality rather than conforming to a certain social caste. Their curated individual styles influence everything from how they decorate their homes to the notebooks they buy for class. They are shifting into using clothing to proclaim themselves to the world. Individuation is the antithesis of AI homogenization, and they’ll continue to differentiate themselves through fashion––as long as they can afford it.

Eyewear Outperforms Luxury Categories

Glyn Atwal — Wed, 18 Feb 2026 05:01:00 +0000

Why do the Kardashians always wear sunglasses? TikTok may have its own addictive answer, but celebrity influence has given luxury eyewear renewed life for aspirational customers. While the global market for personal luxury goods stagnated in 2025, eyewear continues to outperform other categories; Bain & Co. is projecting growth of 2 to 4 percent. And there are no signs of slowing.

Is luxury eyewear a growth opportunity? And the answer is: Eyewear outperforms other categories, projected to grow two to four percent, and design innovation no longer comes from a single creative vision; it is the result of an ongoing dialogue between design, data, and culture.

Licensing Leaps

Customers can now own a piece of the celebrity-driven luxury lifestyle as wannabe style setters, whether they wear prescription glasses or not. Licensing eyewear deals have made luxury logos accessible to an expanding base of consumers, many of whom are first-time luxury buyers. This business model continues to reap rewards. EssilorLuxottica, the world’s largest eyewear company, manages licenses for luxury brands including Giorgio Armani, Brunello Cucinelli, Burberry, Chanel, and Dolce & Gabbana. In Q3 2025, it reported its best quarterly performance ever, with revenue rising 11.7 percent to €6.9 billion. The consumer investment is significant, with luxury eyewear ranging from $202 for the A$AP Rocky Ray-Ban Wayfarer Puffer to $6,721 for the diamond edition.

The allure of the logo remains a critical decision point. According to the EY Luxury Client Index 2025, 42 percent of “prestige aspirational” luxury clients buy luxury fashion as a marker of status. That said, the global success of South Korean eyewear brand Gentle Monster is a reminder that for Gen Z, eyewear is less about status and more about self-expression as a statement of identity.

As luxury brands scale up eyewear operations, including launches like Victoria Beckham Eyewear with the Safilo Group, the landscape will only grow more crowded. This market demands agility as brands compete for consumers’ wallets and eyes amid unprecedented competition through social media exposure and expansive product choice.

Eyewear as a Proxy for Luxury

Accessories have historically been entry products for aspirational luxury customers, and eyewear is no exception. An impressive 71 percent of luxury clients are primarily driven by a desire to own high-quality products. Quality and provenance matter. Persol, for example, has been crafting sunglasses by hand since 1917 with artisans at its Lauriano plant in Turin, Italy, ensuring its Craftsmanship Campaign.

Sustainability gives luxury consumers the confidence to signal purpose. Nearly one-third (31 percent) of luxury clients rank sustainability among the top five factors influencing purchase decisions. Savvy eyewear brands merge sustainability with innovation. Balenciaga’s Blackout sunglasses (€1,200, made in Italy) use Eastman Acetate Renew, combining cellulose derived from wood pulp with recycled plastic that would otherwise end up in landfills.

Eyewear is also a visual extension of a brand’s DNA. Here’s where the ephemeral influence of emotion, identity and possibility play critical roles. Longchamp, for example, says its sunglasses “reveal the allure of the Longchamp Parisienne.” Maybe that’s true, but brands sell when they excite and surprise. According to Mor Margalit, Director of Brand Merchandising at GlassesUSA.com, “Design innovation in eyewear today no longer comes from a single creative vision. It is the result of an ongoing dialogue between design, data, and culture.”

Successful eyewear also rivals the versatility of today’s designer handbag collections. Gentle Monster is redefining the category through collaborations such as Tekken 8 and its Pocket Collection with Bratz, transforming culture and community into eyewear icons. Coach x GlassesUSA.com’s limited-edition Milky Pink Frame for 2026 embraces the concept of fusion fashion, which, according to Mor Margalit, is “recognizing that people don’t dress according to one fixed aesthetic. They blend moods, styles, and personal expression throughout their everyday lives.” For fashionistas (and the easily bored), multiple branded eyewear is the norm, similar to a closet full of handbags.

Celeb collabs are table stakes for luxury brands. Identifying eyewear-specific brand ambassadors creates emotional connections akin to those in beauty and fragrance. Orlando Bloom, for instance, is a brand ambassador for Porsche Design’s timepiece and eyewear collections.

Visionary Innovation

According to The State of Fashion 2026, smart eyewear is “poised for a breakout in 2026.” Despite Mark Zuckerberg’s infamous failed Meta Ray-Ban demo, consumer interest remains high, with waiting lists for AI-enabled glasses that take photos, record videos, make calls, play music, and access Meta’s AI assistant. Yet smart eyewear is not only about technology. BoF and McKinsey & Co. survey data show that style influences one-third of smart-glasses buyers. It’s a wake-up call and an opportunity for luxury brands to differentiate.

Eyecare is a new, cool, integral to both the fashion runway and the everyday wardrobe. Fashion and lifestyle brands without a core eyewear business may be leaving brand equity on the table. Visionary creativity is essential to capture a share of this growing market. After all, in the world according to the Kardashians, staying relevant and relatable may simply come down to how you frame the future.

Is Netflix House the Next Big Retail Thing?

Warren Shoulberg — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 05:01:00 +0000

I have seen the future of the Great American Shopping Mall…maybe. And I survived. As department stores crash and burn, specialty chains fold up like cheap lawn chairs, and food courts become Ozempic victims, a new potential victor has arrived on the retail scene. And it’s not coming from a traditional retailing company, startup from techdom or a visitor from another planet. It’s from a streaming entertainment behemoth.

Is Netflix House a new retail paradigm? And the answer is: More likely it’s the latest shiny, new retail toy. But it does have a few superpowers: capturing the attention, imagination and wallets of its loyal fans. Is it sustainable with repeat visits? We’ll see.

Streaming Retail

Netflix House is the latest riff in retailing, with its first two stores having opened late last year, and at least one more on the way in 2027 in Las Vegas. It represents a potential new format that could rescue shopping malls from the ongoing deterioration in American retailing. Then again, it could be the latest colossal failure in a long line of retail concepts that promised big things and ended up with padlocked doors and large going-out-of-business signs in their windows. Or worse, dream malls that became food courts and carnivals.

I just got back from Dallas, where Netflix House has set up shop; its other location is in King of Prussia, PA. And I’m here to tell you it’s exciting, innovative and was packed on a busy Saturday afternoon. Whether it will succeed is, of course, an entirely different matter. We’ll see how it fares in a whimsical customer-driven retail marketplace.

What’s in the House?

The Dallas Netflix store, opened in December in what had once been a Belk store in the still popular upscale Galleria, including Nordstrom, Macy’s, Louis Vuitton, an ice-skating rink and architecture inspired by Milan’s Galleria Vittorio Emanuele shopping space. Netflix measures out at 100,000 square feet on two floors with direct access from both the interior and exterior of the mall (with a big red square emblazoned on the store’s wall that Netflix hailed as an homage to its mail-in DVD envelope origins). The King of Prussia store is similar in design.

While it’s free to enter, once inside, the meter starts running the minute you actually want to do anything. The star attractions are two interactive experiences (c’mon, what else can you call them?) based on wildly popular Netflix series: Stranger Things Escape the Dark and Squid Games Survive the Trials. Tickets for these immersive experiences run about $40, depending on the timed entry and other factors. What do you get for that? Good question. As we were clearly not the right target demographic for either room (in fact our mere appearance at the place brought up the average age of the crowd by a factor of two), all we can tell you is that they are part game room, part escape room and part nightmare. The Stranger Things room carries a “parental supervision required for guests under 14 due to graphic content” warning.

Long lines to enter both spaces called “Studios” on a busy Saturday afternoon seemed to indicate they had winners on their hands, though you have to wonder how many repeat visitors these kinds of things will get. We also thought it odd that both these experiences were located on the lower level of the place (we can’t quite call it a store) rather than more visibly on the larger main floor. For such a hot ticket, it seems shortsighted to have only one kiosk on-site to purchase tickets. But just like movie theaters, the popular online ticketing service guarantees timed reservations.

Level Up

The main floor showcased the Netflix Bites restaurant, which, in addition to the usual teenage wasteland burgers, pizza and fries assortment, features a few Netflix property-themed offerings such as Red Bite Green Bite fried chicken and Perfect Pickle Pie. If you have to ask, you probably are sticking with the burger. There’s a bar with more Netflix tie-ins like Streaming Optimism and Passion on Demand. There’s also plenty of giant servings of iced tea; this is the South, after all. It should be noted that Netflix road-tested the Bites concept last year with pop-ups in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, both of which are now closed as the company has moved to the House concept.

Then there’s the game room, called RePlay, featuring a wide assortment of arcade games, many of which are naturally themed to Netflix properties and offer multi-player competitive contests. Again, Netflix’s targets of loyal fans (and next gens) totally get how to play these games

The Merch

Of course, there’s the prerequisite, high-margin gift shop. It’s huge, maybe 10,000 square feet and full of anything and everything you’d ever want in Netflix products. Given the creativity shown in the rest of the House, we were a bit disappointed to see a fairly standard assortment of apparel, water bottles and fashion accessories with only the occasional inspired item. How could they not sell squid?

No matter, the lines were long here, snaking through a checkout lane that offered last-minute pick-up items in the best tradition of a Bed Bath & Beyond and Sephora. And they weren’t giving anything away either, mind you.

Is a House a Store?

As well done as Netflix House is on most levels, let’s remember it’s not exactly a new concept. Disney tried—and failed—with urban shopping area themed attractions two decades ago. In the 1990s, Radio Shack rolled out a giant retail concept called Incredible Universe which, while it didn’t include interactive areas, was a theme park kind of experience. It too failed. And American Dream in the swamps of Jersey is nothing if not an amusement park masquerading as a shopping center with rides, a water park, ice skating and enough interactive storefronts to keep a family of four occupied (and broke) for days at a time. It remains to be seen if it will be the success its developers keep saying it will become. All said, the Harry Potter immersive stores seem to be holding up.

If you’re in the retail business, you really need to see a Netflix House. It is onto the most compelling reasons for retail to succeed: customer engagement, surprise and delight. It captures the imagination and attention, plus the dollars of its fans. See for yourself and decide if this is truly the next big thing. Retailing has always been a game. It’s Netflix’s (potentially) winning move right now.

If You’re Not Watching Grocery, You’ll Miss the Future of Retail

Chris Walton — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000

According to Brick Meets Click’s Grocery Shopper Survey which it conducts in partnership with Mercatus, “Monthly U.S. online grocery sales experienced a dramatic acceleration in November, with total sales surging 29 percent year-over-year (YOY) to finish the month at $12.3 billion.” Wait, what? During a period of tight budgets and inflation? How can that be true? Ah, but it is.

“Online share of weekly grocery spending in November 2025 ended the month at 17.1 percent, climbing 340 bps versus November 2024,” the survey reported. Moreover, all three fulfillment options that the survey tracks –delivery orders (aka orders from third-party services like Instacart), pickup orders, and ship-to-home orders (aka direct orders from Walmart and Amazon) – increased across the board. Ship-to-home sales increased 12 percent over the prior year, pickup gained 11 percent, and delivery brought up the rear at a still remarkable 8 percent increase year-over-year.

But again, how can this be? How can a consumer that is reportedly so budget-constrained be purchasing his or her groceries in a relatively more expensive way across the board? Albeit pickup doesn’t cost more, ship-to-home and delivery certainly do, especially when one factors in shipping and membership fees.

How is the K-shaped income disparity feeding the grocery business? And the answer is: Customers who are more open to agentic AI commerce, pragmatic shopping, time as currency, and values-based consumption.

The Haves, the Have-Nots, the Have Everythings

So, what on earth could be driving it? Well, the answer comes down to two words: rich people. A Brick Meets Click press release stated that “The (online) share expansion was fueled largely by higher spending rates in large metro markets, by the 30-44 age group, and by households earning $100K or more annually,” a fact later confirmed to me by Brick Meets Click Partner David Bishop. And that data point adds all the context one needs to understand the full impact of what this report could mean, both now but also in the future. Or, said another way, seismic change is coming to the grocery industry, and these latest survey results likely are just the beginning.

Now, before anyone gets their pitchforks out, let me clarify something. When I say, “rich people,” I’m not talking about yacht owners and trust fund babies. I’m talking about households earning $100,000 or more annually (i.e., households that earn more than 60 percent of the U.S. population). In many large metro markets, that’s a dual-income household with kids, a mortgage, and maybe enough left over for a Costco membership and a family vacation once a year.

These aren’t the 1 percenters. These are the people who need convenience but still care deeply about value. And that’s what makes this data so fascinating. Because here’s what’s really happening: The 30- to 44-year-old group, aka the core users, posted the strongest increase in order frequency, surging over 20 percent compared to last year. They’re placing an average of 3.1 orders per month. That’s a record high. These aren’t people experimenting with e-grocery. These are people who have fundamentally changed how they buy groceries.

The Value Equation That Makes e-Grocery Work (For Some People)

So why are higher-income households driving this surge? Four principal reasons could explain the increase.

The time-value equation.When you’re a dual-income household in the 30-44 age range, you’ve likely got kids, careers that demand constant attention, and maybe aging parents. The hour you can save by ordering groceries online isn’t just leisure time. It’s the hour you need to make dinner, help with homework, or actually see your family. For these households, paying $10-15 extra per week to reclaim that time is a value-laden trade-off.
The price transparency and loyalty program effect. When you’re reordering the same items week after week from a place you trust, like Walmart or your local grocer, you develop loyalty. Platforms like Walmart+ with their cash-back incentives make that relationship even stickier.
What’s actually happening in stores right now. The in-store grocery experience has degraded significantly. Staffing shortages. Out-of-stocks. The general chaos of trying to navigate a crowded store with kids in tow as you try and elbow your way around an Instacart driver. When you order online, you know immediately what’s available and what’s not. No wild goose chases down the aisles. No asking three different employees where something is. For busy professionals, that certainty alone has to be worth something.
Younger high-income households are simply acclimated to buying everything online.For these consumers, ordering groceries from an app is as natural as ordering an Uber. There’s no psychological barrier to overcome. And they have relatively more disposable income to make the behavior stick.

But What About Everyone Else?

If higher-income households in large metro markets are driving the e-grocery surge, what happens with everyone else? What happens to the budget-constrained families in smaller markets who can’t justify the premium? What happens to the traditional grocers who built their entire business model around serving those customers?

Here is where the story gets really interesting … and also complicated. The data suggests that we’re witnessing the beginning of a bifurcation in the grocery market. You’ve got one segment, affluent, tech-savvy, time-starved, rapidly moving online. And you’ve got another segment that’s still shopping primarily in-store, either by choice or by economic necessity. This is another K-shaped economic ecosystem.

And the uncomfortable truth is that the segment going online is the one with the most purchasing power and the highest lifetime value. They’re the customers every grocer wants to retain. But they’re also the customers who are learning to shop in ways that fundamentally challenge traditional grocery economics.

Take a box of Kraft macaroni and cheese. There’s no difference between buying it at Store A versus Store B, all things being equal, particularly when the price is the same. The product is identical. So, what happens when we layer agentic AI on top of this existing behavioral shift? That is the question the industry needs to be asking itself.

The AI Acceleration That’s Coming (Whether You’re Ready or Not)

If we’re already seeing this kind of explosive growth in e-grocery with today’s technology, just imagine what happens when agentic AI enters the picture. We’re now talking about far more than incremental improvements. We’ve got consumers who are already comfortable ordering groceries online. We’ve got loyalty programs that understand their purchase patterns. There’s greater price transparency online. There’s the time savings. Now add an AI agent into the mix that can scan every retailer’s prices in real-time, then apply a consumer’s preferences, factor in dietary restrictions, optimize for a budget, and automatically reorder staples at the best possible price across multiple retailers. All of a sudden, every income demographic is jumping into e-grocery. That’s not science fiction, either. That’s all coming in the short-term, like in the next one to three years. Open the pod bay doors, HAL.

The Ultimate Irony: Grocery Pioneers Agentic Commerce

David Dorf, Head of Retail Industry Solutions at AWS, recently mentioned that UBS is predicting grocery will be the first industry hit by agentic commerce. Grocery, the category that was supposed to be the last frontier for ecommerce, the holdout, the one format that would always need physical stores because people wanted to see and touch their avocados, is now predicted to be the first industry disrupted by AI agents.

It’s the complete flip side of how ecommerce developed. Back in the 1990s and 2000s, we sold books, electronics, and clothing online while everyone said grocery would never work. The margins were too thin. The logistics were too complex. Customers would never trust someone else to pick their bananas.

But now? Now Dorf believes (and I agree) that the infrastructure to support e-groceries is different, and, most importantly, we are also dealing with new customer behaviors and desires. In other words, grocery shopping brings with it the perfect conditions for agentic AI to amplify what’s already working, with a little more budget and time savings sprinkled in for good measure.

David Bishop from Brick Meets Click put it well: “The online grocery customer pool continues to expand, order frequency has steadily grown for over a year, and spending remains resilient, which shows that e-grocery is evolving from just a convenient option to the preferred way to get groceries for many.”

Not just convenient. Preferred. Right now, it’s predominantly high-income households in large metro markets driving this behavior. But behavioral patterns established by early adopters don’t stay confined to early adopters. They diffuse. They spread. They become the new normal. The question isn’t whether e-grocery will expand beyond high-income households. It will. The real question is what happens when it does, and whether traditional grocers will still be around to compete when that day comes.

The Seismic Shift Hidden in Plain Sight

In my now almost 30 years of retail experience (yes, I am getting old), I have learned that you can take one simple idea to the bank – by the time a behavioral shift becomes obvious to everyone, it’s too late to catch up. The infrastructure investments, the technology platforms, the loyalty programs, and the customer data, all take years to build. You can’t flip a switch and suddenly compete with Walmart’s fulfillment network or Amazon’s delivery infrastructure.

So, yes, relatively more well-off people are driving e-grocery growth right now. But they’re not the endgame. They’re the early warning signal. They’re showing us where the entire retail market is heading. Moreover, if Dorf and UBS are right about grocery being first in line for the agentic commerce revolution, then that future is coming faster than most people realize. Seismic change isn’t just coming. It’s already here. 2025 November’s numbers may just be the tremor or foreshock before the earthquake, revealing an ignored fault line.

Editor’s note: This is a modified reprint from Omni Talk.

Creeping Out Customers Is the New Normal

Jasmine Glasheen — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000

Brand marketing has long hawked the illusion of perfection with flawless models, soft lighting, and “aspirational,” i.e., highly photoshopped beauty. But walk into a store right now, and you’re just as likely to see models with contorted faces and gothic product packaging. Take Elf Beauty’s new “corpse paint” collab with Liquid Death water, which is literally packaged in mini coffins. Brands like Elf, that cater to Gen Z, are intentionally creeping out customers to cut through the noise of an oversaturated market…and it’s working.

The creep-out trend is driven by a greater aesthetic shift away from the pursuit of perfection, which smacks of AI’s veneer. Next gens are moving away from the dated and increasingly unattainable, idealized “filtered look” towards Uncanny Valley, reflecting today’s dystopian elements of the economic and political landscape. Whether it’s Columbia’s social media account for the Grim Reaper or everyone and their mom walking out with Wednesday’s dark lipstick, these looks leverage the psychology of fright to create an indelible memory, both glamorous and otherwise.

That discomfort creates thumb-stopping content. Look at millennial skincare brand The Ordinary’s “Periodic Fable” video, a hack on the “non-scientific” table with actors coated with dystopian facial masks promoting the truth about beauty, not exactly the aspirational look we’re used to from beauty brands. But therein lies its genius. Their truth is a shot of adrenaline that triggers a stronger trust to purchase than the uniform, airbrushed celebrity endorsements. Next gens are informed; they know Kim K isn’t really drinking that diet tea.

The human mind remembers what stands out and, for this most individualistic generation, uniqueness is the top signal. These creepy dabbles into darker tropes are meant to differentiate the brand and delight the cynical, overstimulated consumers they’re meant to target. More mature consumers may be alienated by the same content, although they’re missing the point. Brands that cater to wider age ranges have to walk a fine line: go too dark, you’ll alienate a loyal customer base; be too uniform, and next gens won’t remember your ad at all. The key takeaway? If you want to connect with next gens, go to the dark side and embrace the shadows.

Will the New FDA Guidelines Change How We Shop for Food?

Phil Lempert — Thu, 22 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000

Big Shift: “Real Food” Circles the Aisles

The core message of the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans is to eat more whole foods, more protein, and fewer highly processed, sugary items. It aligns almost perfectly with how many shoppers already say what they want to eat. For retailers, that means the perimeter of the store (produce, meat, seafood, dairy, bakery) is now explicitly backed by federal guidance as the default starting point for healthier choices. But don’t expect these grocers to stop selling high-margin snacks, sodas, candies and ultra-processed foods…unless shoppers stop buying them. Retailers respond to two major things: consumer demand and manufacturer incentives and promotions.

Very few would argue against the explicit call to reduce added sugars and ultra-processed foods, which the USDA estimates make up 70 percent of the foods on our supermarket shelves. However, we are still awaiting a standard definition from the FDA, HHS and USDA for the exact definition of an UPF. Is it ultra-chemically processed, overly salty or sugary, high-fat, highly caloric, synthetic …what is it? Until that is finalized, we are unlikely to see a major shift in consumption behaviors any time soon.

How will the new dietary guidelines reshape the grocery store? And the answer is: The core of the store is officially on warning of a higher risk, according to the government.

The Slow Food Movement

Food manufacturers, for both national and store brands, don’t pivot overnight. Reformulating a product from swapping out artificial colors and dyes, reducing sugar, and removing artificial additives can take anywhere from several months to multiple years, depending on the complexity of manufacturing to the challenges of delivering taste, texture, cost and food safety. And who knows if consumer demand will even be there for these new products. PepsiCo is hedging its bets with the launch of Simply NKD Doritos and Cheetos, which have removed artificial colors and flavors, resulting in a pale yellow color (instead of the bright orange that we are used to licking off our fingers). The company is not replacing the originals, just offering these as an alternative, and to test whether or not a consumer will make the switch.

For most shoppers pushing a cart through the supermarket aisles, these new guidelines won’t change much, at least not right away. It’s important to note that these guidelines are not laws that stipulate what one can buy or what the supermarket can sell. The question is whether the Make America Healthy Again and related guidelines will have a downstream effect on store layouts and promotions.

Will the CPG companies reformulating products to healthier change shopping behaviors? We are likely to see more in-store signage and displays that promote meat, dairy, eggs and produce as “guideline-friendly.” We anticipate more CPG brands hurrying to reformulate products to avoid being thought of as “bad food.” Front-of-pack claims will likely promote “now with less sugar” and “made with whole grains.” Expect also to see “better-for-you” messaging ramping up on supermarkets websites, apps and in-store. Target, for example, announced that it is expanding its wellness assortment, including protein products and nonalcoholic beverages by 30 percent and holding ‘wellness week’ savings events. Is it optics and posturing or the real thing? Retailers and CPG never miss a moment to glom onto the next trend. For the health of the nation, we hope it’s not just confirmation bias.

Margin Opportunity vs. Message Risk

The elevation of protein, especially meat and whole‑fat dairy, creates clear sales opportunities, but also potential reputational and health pitfalls if the story stops at just eating “more protein.” Many nutritionists and health professionals are questioning these recommendations. Health organizations, including the American Heart Association, warn that emphasizing full‑fat animal products without equal focus on saturated‑fat limits and plant‑based proteins sends mixed messages, and retailers that lean too hard into RFK, Jr.’s “butter and beef are back” marketing messaging risk being seen as out of step with heart‑health guidance.

“Limit alcoholic beverages: Consume less alcohol for better overall health” is a big departure from the previous guidance of one drink a day for women and two for men – contradicting the Surgeon General’s 2025 Advisory on the link between alcohol and cancer risk. To hedge all the contradictory bets, supermarkets that sell alcohol might consider merchandising beer, wines and distilled beverages with non-alcoholic offerings integrated in their displays, especially since this market is booming among millennials and Gen Z who seek moderation and more innovative alternatives.

Will the Guidelines Take Hold or Will We Go Back to Donuts?

Dietary advice is a moving target. Eat fewer eggs, then a year later, hey, eggs are okay to eat. Fat is bad and will clog your arteries. Now fat is back. Carbs are bad, then carb loading becomes the trend. Research shows that while labeling and nutrition information can shift purchases, the effect is strongest when the “healthy” option doesn’t sacrifice taste. It’s not surprising that the consumer is mystified about what’s true, safe and sustainable. Aligning external signals with internalized food behavior is a science unto itself.

Only time will tell if PepsiCo’s Simply Naked line works when a shopper is faced with making the choice. Remember that starting with the boomers, our senses and taste buds have been trained on artificial flavors and colors. The TV dinners, CPG innovations in convenience and shelf life, transformed an entire generation’s palate.

The real test for these guidelines is whether the collective power of the grocery industry, retailers and manufacturers will take the healthier path, or the path of least resistance. My bet is that despite all the guidelines, logic and nutritional advice, the donut aisle will stay just as irresistible as ever.

The State of Gen Z in 2026: The Checked-Out Generation

Jasmine Glasheen — Wed, 21 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000

The generation we thought would be radically progressive is now embracing tradwife aesthetics. In 2026, we anticipate Gen Z purchasing behavior to continue in a disturbing trend: They’re spending less and expecting more from retailers––affordable, upscale-style brands that align with their values. And affordability isn’t an afterthought, either. In a five-year review of Gen Z consumers, PwC found that more than 79 percent wait for products to go on sale, and only 21 percent regularly pay full price.

Who could fault Gen Z for being discerning? Headlines are rife with tales of the unfriendly “no-hire, no-fire” labor market they’re trying to break into, and a generational mental health crisis that now seems could last their whole lifespan. Political and economic uncertainty dog them around every turn, and job opportunities are few. Gen Z is a politically bifurcated demographic of stressed-out, risk-averse consumers facing career stagnation and uncertainty in 2026. Let’s talk about how their lifestyle differs from previous generations and how to sell to them.

Why are so many young consumers disconnected from popular influencer memes? And the answer is: They no longer see their future in influencers (or Emily) wearing Balenciaga boots to frolic in Paris when they have more in common with the person working the McDonald’s counter.

The Economic Reality

It’s hard to sell the American Dream to a demographic for whom it feels unattainable. Gen Z’s obsession with the 2010s “Millennial Optimism Era” isn’t indicative of a longing for financial certainty. Millennials faced the aftershocks of the Great Recession and, according to a Pew Research Center report from 2014, were the “first in the modern era to have higher levels of student loan debt, poverty and unemployment, and lower levels of wealth and personal income.”

But that still feels halcyon to people in their early 20s today. Unemployment is up 2.1 percent for consumers aged 20–24. That number is even higher for those aged 16–19, up 3.5 points. Oxford Economics estimates that 1 million more young adults are living at home than pre-pandemic trends indicated. Gen Z is entering a less hospitable professional playing field than their predecessors faced, so it only makes sense they’re reluctant to spend.

Does it really surprise retailers that twenty-somethings still living with their parents are more concerned with survival than ephemeral fashion trends? Oxford Economics found that consumers who still live at home spend $1200 less annually than their peers who move out, creating a $12-13 billion hit to U.S. consumption. Critics often point to the fact that Gen Z has less student loan debt than their predecessors, assumiung their more positive economic prospects. To put this in perspective, credit card delinquencies are actually rising, which points to an alarming trend: Gen Z is spending less and still falling behind.

A Generation Raised on Quantification

Gen Z was raised on metrics. They learned to chase social media likes and high test scores before they could drive. They were funnelled into the high-pressure American education system, where schools operate like publicly traded companies. Of course, their mental health would be suffering. Nearly 1 in 4 17-year-old boys have ADHD, nearly 32 percent of adolescents have been diagnosed with anxiety, and more than one in 10 have experienced a major depressive disorder.

A generation raised on the constant quantification of social media is now entering adulthood, only to be met with a grim reality of the current job market, which holds few opportunities to reach the success metrics they see on social media. Like their millennial predecessors, “first” homes and mortgages feel unattainable to Gen Z. Perhaps it’s the lack of opportunity that’s made Gen Z nostalgic for a time in which they’ve never lived and returning to tradition where they can revive old fashion, beauty, and lifestyle norms.

Being thin has returned as the model body standard in fashion. While some luxury brands like Coach are still outspokenly size inclusive, many brands are once again pivoting away from crafting clothing that fits their core consumer base to court an unattainable body ideal.

Aesthetics Shift to Identify In-Groups

The U.S. political climate is causing a bifurcation in next-gen fashion proclivities between those who ascribe to a “return to traditional values” and those who don’t. Next gens are watching brands they once loved for their unretouched inclusivity (anyone remember AE’s Aerie line?) that drank the Kool-Aid and began catering to the tradwife aesthetic with modest prairie dresses and the Ozempic-fueled re-engineering of body positivity. Heroin chic 90s aesthetics are back. The dystopian feeling of witnessing celebrities who were once body positivity icons dwindle away is yet another nod to the creep-out aesthetic that’s dominating every vertical, from fashion to CPG.

Fashion is becoming more about in-group identification between gender bifurcated “traditional values” customers and those for whom self-expression and inclusivity are still a priority. Fashion also reflects the strained job market with pandemic styles like athleisure, pajama dressing, and quiet luxury falling by the wayside. Fueled by nostalgia for the millennial hipster life of the 2010s and a strained job market, young people are wearing office attire everywhere.

The Voice of Reason

The Gen Z consumer of 2026 is overwhelmed, still living at home, and nostalgic about fashion. Many are no longer spending to express their individuality; they are spending to express their values in a politically bifurcated society. In this environment, the old methods of aspirational marketing no longer work. Young consumers no longer see their future in influencers (or Emily) wearing Balenciaga boots to frolic in Paris when they have more in common with the person working the McDonald’s counter.

Ignoring Gen Z’s sober economic reality will only alienate them. Instead, meet them where they are (their parents’ house) with transparency, value, and awareness while they weather the storm. And, for goodness’ sake, don’t pull your plus-size section.

Retail in 2026 Faces Political Headwinds — But Not a Freefall

Arick Wierson — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000

I’m often asked to provide a macroeconomic and political read to foreign leaders, tech CEOs, and increasingly, retail executives trying to make sense of what comes next. Here’s what I’m telling retail leaders right now: I’m cautiously optimistic about 2026.

That may surprise some, because the economy certainly isn’t “fixed.” From a fundamentals-only perspective, many indicators are moving in the wrong direction. Growth is uneven. Inflation pressures linger. Structural issues remain unresolved. Tariffs continue to muddy the waters…

But fundamentals aren’t the only force shaping retail outcomes. Consumer confidence is. And 2026 is an election year — a period when perception often moves faster than policy, and sentiment shifts before the math does.

If I were sitting in the CEO chair at a major retailer — whether a mass merchant like Macy’s or Target, or a discretionary-driven specialty brand — I wouldn’t be betting on a boom. But I also wouldn’t be bracing for collapse.

If I were sitting in the CEO chair at a major retailer — whether a mass merchant like Macy’s or Target, or a discretionary-driven specialty brand — I wouldn’t be betting on a boom. But I also wouldn’t be bracing for collapse.

Here’s why. As the political cycle intensifies, incumbents historically lean on familiar tools aimed at stabilizing voter sentiment: talk of tax relief, targeted spending, and efforts to ease financial conditions. Whether those measures solve underlying economic challenges is a longer-term question. But in the near term, they shape how consumers feel. And consumers don’t shop based on spreadsheets. They shop based on confidence.

Do they feel secure in their jobs?
Do they feel the next six to twelve months will be manageable?
Do they feel momentum is turning in their favor?

That emotional calculus matters enormously in retail.

At the same time, global events continue to inject volatility into headlines. Venezuela remains a live issue — not because it offers an immediate solution to global energy prices, but because its political transition introduces fresh uncertainty into already fragile energy markets. With Nicolás Maduro now out, expectations that Venezuelan oil will quickly return and push prices down are overly simplistic.

In reality, political transitions in resource-heavy countries are rarely clean or fast. Infrastructure is degraded. Contracts are contested. Sanctions frameworks take time to unwind. Internal power struggles can delay production for months, if not years. In the near term, that uncertainty may actually add upward pressure to oil prices, not relieve it. Markets tend to price risk before they price supply.

That said, political narratives don’t require immediate results to influence consumer psychology. Even the promise of normalization or future energy stability can shape sentiment — especially when reinforced by domestic economic easing. For retail, that distinction matters. Energy prices may not fall meaningfully in the short run, but confidence can still rise if consumers believe conditions are stabilizing.

Historically, even heightened geopolitical tension can produce short-term sentiment effects at home — not because outcomes are resolved, but because visibility and messaging create a temporary sense of direction. These effects are often fleeting. But in retail, timing matters.

When you layer that sentiment lift — however modest — on top of domestic economic signaling, you create a window where perception outpaces reality. That doesn’t eliminate inflation. It doesn’t remove structural risk. And it certainly doesn’t guarantee growth.

But it does suggest resilience. And in retail, resilience is often the difference between hesitation and conversion. So, when retail leaders ask me about 2026, my answer isn’t hype or gloom. It’s cautious optimism — paired with a clear reminder:

Be ready to act if consumer confidence improves, regardless of whatever picture the economic data is painting. Because when consumers feel better — even briefly — retail performance often follows faster than the macro data would suggest.

Here’s What Happens When Your Customers Design Your Clothes

Retail Unwrapped — Fri, 02 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000

Here’s an interesting fact: 1.6 million tradespeople trust their friends over impersonal brands. And here’s why: Most workwear brands claim they understand their customers, but they’re designing products by committee in the boardroom and based on their P/L. Join Shelley and Eric Girouard who discuss how he built his BRUNT Workwear brand with the people who actually wear the work gear. They reveal how BRUNT was launched with the encouragement of childhood friends who were brought up in a blue-collar manufacturing town. Unlike Eric and his colleagues, the workwear industry has forgotten who it serves and would be better served by paying attention to what happens when customers help design their own products. BRUNT eliminated PFAS from water-resistant fabrics before regulations required it, positioning the brand ahead of market demands while legacy competitors are still scrambling to reformulate. BRUNT stays close to its customers, outfitting the New England Patriots field crew this season, partnering with unique talent like Diesel Dave who tricks out trucks and professional motocross athlete Travis Pastrana. It’s also a mainstay in rally racing, NASCAR, and automotive stunt performance. BRUNT’s Bucket Talk is “a monthly podcast that takes listeners across America to meet the “most badass tradespeople, industry leaders and personalities.” Growing from an initial 110 stores to 858 doors nationwide while maintaining its brand integrity proves that authentic products are relevant and can scale when you understand your local communities and customers.

Special Guests

Eric Girouard, Founder + CEO at BRUNT Workwear

Transcript