Retail Unwrapped from The Robin Report https://therobinreport.com Retail Unwrapped is a weekly podcast series hosted by our Chief Strategist Shelley E. Kohan. Each week, they share insights and opinions on major topics in the retail and consumer product industries. The shows are a lively conversation on industry-wide issues, trends, and consumer behavior. Thu, 05 Mar 2026 14:48:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.2 The Robin Report The Robin Report info@therobinreport.com Retail Unwrapped from The Robin Report https://therobinreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/RR_RU_Podcast_CTAArtboard-02-copy.jpg https://therobinreport.com Retail Unwrapped from The Robin Report Retail Unwrapped is a weekly podcast series hosted by our Chief Strategist Shelley E. Kohan. Each week, they share insights and opinions on major topics in the retail and consumer product industries. The shows are a lively conversation on industry-wide issues, trends, and consumer behavior. false All content copyright The Robin Report. A Data Expert Uncovers the Power of Re-Commerce https://therobinreport.com/a-data-expert-uncovers-the-power-of-re-commerce/ Fri, 06 Mar 2026 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=135231 114Join Shelley and Romain Fouache, CEO of Akeneo, as they discuss why eBay's acquisition of Depop for $1.2 billion strengthens its core business and marks a structural inflection point. ]]> 114

The consumer movement to invest in secondhand is led by values: meaning, provenance, and sustainability. Re-commerce is not a niche; it’s a $180-$200 billion global, parallel economy growing up to five times faster than traditional retail. The brands that get this right think beyond the first sale and plan for the lifetime value of a product, including multiple sales. Join Shelley and Romain Fouache, CEO of Akeneo, as they discuss why eBay’s acquisition of Depop for $1.2 billion strengthens its core business and marks a structural inflection point.  A data expert, Romain makes the case for the power of transparency. Secondhand operations are logistically incompatible with firsthand retail models. Every resale item is its own unique SKU, its own story, condition, and context. Brands that attempt to glue re-commerce onto traditional operations without rethinking their infrastructure are setting themselves up for expensive failure. Listen and learn how the brands that will win in re-commerce will be the ones with the richest, most comprehensive product information, including materials, origin, manufacturing details, and use history.

Special Guests

Romain Fouache, CEO, Akeneo

Romain Fouache (00:00)
our study shows that even as of this year, 44 % of customers have actually purchased secondhand. So we should assume that everything that can become a secondhand most likely will.

Shelley E. Kohan (00:38)
Hi everybody and thanks for joining our weekly podcast. I’m Shelley Kohan and I’m thrilled to welcome Romain Fouache ⁓ I’m sure I didn’t pronounce that perfectly well, but you can tell our audience how to properly pronounce it.

Romain Fouache (00:52)
There’s

no way to pronounce it if you’re not French native, so I always say if I know you’re talking about me, you said it well enough. So that was perfect. Thank you very much, Shelley for having me today.

Shelley E. Kohan (01:04)
my gosh, I’m so excited. So you’re the CEO of Akeneo and ⁓ we have a very hot topic that we’re going to talk about. think that retail in our industry is being reshaped, not just by price and product, but by value. So a lot of consumers today are really looking for those values. And so we’re going to talk about kind of two massive forces that are colliding at the same time. One is the consumer demand for transparency.

and also the explosive growth of secondhand shopping. And so we’re going to start with a fascinating deal that was recently announced where eBay has just acquired Depop. I think it was $1.2 billion. So tell us a little bit about your thoughts about what this means for the industry and for resale.

Romain Fouache (01:53)
Yes, indeed, 1.2 billion. That’s quite a transaction that took place in that space. And I think it just shows the shifting expectations of buyers. Secondhand was maybe a secondhand topic just a few years back. But now we are seeing eBay itself acquiring the deep up business. I do think we are seeing a shift of consumers that are thinking differently about the way they consume. And it’s a combination of the two.

traditional factors of secondhand, the first one being of course the element around pricing and cost. Yes, something that is secondhand can be just as usable as first hand but at a significantly lower cost. I do think as you say it also connects to another topic which is the topic of sustainability, which is the topic of consuming differently. And these two elements collide. People want to buy for less and

start to be more regarding of where things are coming from and the sustainability of their behavior. And that makes one big bang on the clear topic, which is secondhand ends the deal between eBay and Deepop.

Shelley E. Kohan (03:02)
Yeah, it’s a pretty big deal and I could tell you that. So my son who’s now 18 has been thrifting for probably six or seven years now. And it’s not just about the looking for value or the price. It’s that they really want to try. Why would I buy something new when I can buy something secondhand? So that’s a real generational shift in terms of how consumers are thinking about, you know, purchasing products, especially products that are

⁓ lightly used and or are in the higher-end market, the luxury sector. I know that’s been a big growth as well.

Romain Fouache (03:37)
Indeed, and you know, we launched, we did a survey fairly recently with consumers from the US, more than a thousand consumers. And what we did see is that ⁓ that question of sustainability is actually now top of mind. We’ve got more than three quarters of shoppers who actually look at how they consume and the sustainability comments of what they do when they’re actually buying. And I think that that is…

completely linked to what you mentioned, which is there is an appreciation for second hand because it does give a different perspective on how to consume. And overall, ⁓ 60 % of customers say they are actually interested in the sustainability ⁓ or e-commerce. And that’s a significant change in behaviors themselves.

Shelley E. Kohan (04:25)
Yeah, that’s tremendous. I know your survey, I your customer survey data. It was really awesome and excellent. It provided a lot of great points. And one of the things I was going to ask you, are you seeing this shift of consumer behavior in some categories more than other categories?

Romain Fouache (04:41)
Yeah, of course luxury as you mentioned is a big one. We are seeing it ⁓ in fashion. I the traditional models of e-commerce, I do think it is something that’s going to be expanding in less traditional industries. But for now, it’s fashion and luxury are clearly the ones that are taking the lead. But as it becomes more mainstream, we should expect that it takes place somewhere else. second hand is different type of business. For businesses, it’s a…

it’s not trivial to get into. When you sell first-hand, you have categories of products. If you sell a jacket in that size, all of them are exactly the same and you can sell them. When you sell second-hand, each item is its own category. They’re all different. They all have that little different wear, little different edge. So it can quickly become fairly complicated for companies to manage and to navigate such a change towards second-hand.

Shelley E. Kohan (05:38)
It’s very interesting. Well, first of all, I forgot to mention. So my jacket I’m wearing today is secondhand J Brand denim jacket, which I love. And I’ve never saw this anywhere. So I’m like, this is awesome because I wasn’t looking for secondhand or big value, but it’s a jacket I couldn’t have otherwise purchased because I don’t make it anymore. So there’s that. But when you look at these big brands, like you just mentioned, I know a lot of them are starting to do secondhand and resell, but I it’s so complex. Like how, how does a company take that?

Romain Fouache (05:47)
Nice.

Shelley E. Kohan (06:08)
And should they? Should brands be taking on secondhand?

Romain Fouache (06:12)
With the gross… So first, on your previous comment, I think that’s also an aspect of second hand, which is the amazing feeling you have to find a unique item that you know could not ever find again. I don’t think that’s the driving force behind the whole of second hand in itself, but it still is something that feels good. The thrifting aspect of it and looking at hundreds of thousands of things and…

not feel like you’re falling into fast fashion but on the contrary that you’re doing something sustainable but at the same time that makes you feel unique ⁓ while being at a good price I think is the good combination to explain to explain second hand but as to what you said yes for brands for companies it’s difficult it’s difficult because first it’s a force to be reckoned with I mean it is a completely different market and it does capture part of the market so we’re seeing more and more brands

trying to manage that second life of the products by themselves, but it is a logistical nightmare. At K &EO, we help companies manage product data, their product catalog. And just from the product catalog standpoint, it is an extremely complicated task for companies to be able to manage items that become unique items that are all extremely different from one another and to be able to do that.

And it still is just a fraction of the complexity of secondhand because typically the logistics aspect of it and collecting them and then sorting them and then putting them on sale and then selling them is in itself something that is completely ⁓ different from the traditional business. So yes, it is a significant opportunity. do think it’s also a

Something you cannot pretend doesn’t exist, so there is a component of risk that is attached to that firm’s brand, so that’s also why many of them are actually moving into the secondhand market, but there is a huge complexity that is ultimately fairly different from how most businesses actually operate.

Shelley E. Kohan (08:13)
Yeah, and wanna go back to something you said, which I thought, Romain, was really important, and that is that you said that instead of dealing with thousands of a unit, so when you make new products, you have thousands of them, you can do a product description, you can do product attributions for many, but I can’t imagine doing, especially now, product attributions now.

to even put stuff online is there’s like hundreds of thousands of product attributions to be able to have that item picked up, you know, with the various, you know, different, you know, websites and, uh, agentic commerce and all of that. So I can’t imagine for one piece, you’re going to do this, you know, 20,000 times. Like I just don’t know how it’s even doable.

Romain Fouache (09:02)
I mean, you mentioned some of the driving forces of shopping in the recent days. So you mentioned the price pressure. You mentioned e-commerce. AI is clearly one of the big things that is happening in our market these days, too. And I think AI is both a change in the market itself, agent e-commerce and the rest, but it’s also a change in the technology and how companies can actually go through what used to be very

work intensive type of activities and automate and facilitate them. So when they get into this type of e-commerce, we have quite a few customers at Ekenio that are actually managing ⁓ secondhand electronics ⁓ and secondhand apparel. AI plays a big role to be able to manage the complexity and the combinatorial of all of the articles they might be able to collect. And it starts from

being able to get data from the sellers themselves and actually be able to extract from that data the key descriptors of the products that they’re selling and then being able to enrich that because the seller themselves will only know a small part of what they’re selling. They’ll be able to take a few pictures to show the overall state to say what it’s about but then indeed leverage AI to enrich that information to make sure you have a complete

a story as possible because in e-commerce, maybe even more than on a traditional type of sale, the story is a key element for the decision making.

Shelley E. Kohan (10:40)
read in your survey that 72 % of consumers say that they’re looking for this strong supply chain transparency. if you couple or just just getting the product back logistically and just getting it on a website and just getting it out there, that’s complex enough. But how how are brands dealing with the transparency and supply chain for secondhand?

Romain Fouache (11:02)
Well, mean, it’s one level of logistics further. First, you need to be able to manage the transparency and origin of the things before they were first sold, and then add the second element. So you’re still one layer removed. So you’ve got all of the complexity of the standard type of sale where people want to know what they’re buying is coming from, plus this step. So ultimately, the same type of approach. You need to understand what is or what was the product. And we see many brands keeping

information about older products thinking that one day they might actually be able to or might need to reuse it and you know that’s one thing usually when you you you have a collection and your collection is over let’s just throw the data away who cares you know it’s done but with that tendency towards re-commerce towards having items being back to be sold there is a stronger intensive to have a treasure trove of product information where even old products you can know

what they were, where they were coming from, how they were done, so that you’re ready to be able to engage in a re-commerce type of activity if that need comes in the future.

Shelley E. Kohan (12:13)
So tell me, Romain, are there any companies that are really doing it right? Do you have examples or can you talk about, you know, who are the standouts that are really getting all of this right?

Romain Fouache (12:24)
⁓ I wouldn’t want to play favorites on any of them. My customers will probably not be that happy to do that. I think the ones that are doing it right are the ones that do two very important things. It’s one, how do they make it as easy as possible to gather the information from the seller itself? There are companies where when you want to sell something back, you’re going to have to go through…

five pages of forms where you need to add lots of information everywhere. mean, users drop out after a few seconds. The companies that do it well or great are the ones that allow people to register items with as little effort as possible. And it’s typically and ideally taking a picture of your item, then it will automatically recognize what it is, in what state, potentially even price it and help you move forward. Then the next element is

once you’ve collected the item, how do you actually reconnect that or the information on the item? How do you enrich that with further information on that piece of apparel or technology and the rest? And for that, you need to actually know your market. You need to actually know that these specific jackets, this is how it was described by the manufacturer when it was initially sold. This is where it was coming from so that you can, as I said, number one,

collect seamlessly information from the sellers so that the selling experience is easy and second enrich it as comprehensively as possible with the original information from these various products so that the buyer can then benefit from the best experience possible on the product that they are looking for.

Shelley E. Kohan (14:06)
Do you think that, so it’s really interesting. So you talked about the target market. would imagine that the target market, different, sustainability means different things to different target markets, right? So depending on the brand, sustainability could be environmental, or it could be ethical sourcing, or it could be something else. So I guess you have to understand that, brands must understand, right?

Romain Fouache (14:30)
Yes, you need to understand, it might even mean different things just for different people, even in the same market. I think that’s also one of the big elements with the rise of AI is that we used to work in a mode where you had maybe a few keywords and then one product page. Now, with conversational AI, with agent e-commerce, we’re evolving into a mode where we have an infinite number of potential intents.

everybody might want to buy for a different reason. Maybe you want to buy because it’s sourced from the right place, maybe I want to buy because it was ethical in the way it was manufactured. so companies now need to be able to capture intents regardless of where it’s coming from and from where it’s coming from. So I think thinking that just buy market is sufficient, it’s no, it has to be almost buy individual. And for that,

The only way to do it is how you’re able to capture as many signals as possible regarding your article. And yes, where it was sourced from, what type of material, what all of these things might be of interest, because maybe someone will say I want an ethically sourced jacket, or someone will say I want it that it’s in that specific hypoallergenic fiber that is grown in the forest of Latin America.

And it’s only if you actually have been able to collect all of these signals around your product that you’ll be able to capture all of these intents. So the evolution of the way people interact ⁓ with digital commerce is in my view creating a huge push towards having more accurate, comprehensive and trusted information on the product.

Shelley E. Kohan (16:12)
So I think what I heard you describe earlier is it’s almost as if you want the product to help with some of that history, the product itself, right? And if we’ve been properly attributing products from the day of production, which we haven’t been doing for 20 years, but maybe for the past 10 years, maybe five years, ⁓ then the product can speak for itself. Is that what you’re saying, essentially?

Romain Fouache (16:35)
There is some

of that indeed. Whatever we sell today will become a second hand product in the future and we might as well make it easier for ourselves by making sure that at least these we know well. And as you say, 10 years ago we were already, I’m not going to say good, but a bit better at getting information on the product. Yes, the things from 20 years ago, it’s going to be very difficult to get that information back. But we can help ourselves today by making sure that whatever we sell today is ready for…

the next life that is going to go through because yes,

our study shows that even as of this year, 44 % of customers have actually purchased secondhand. So we should assume that everything that can become a secondhand most likely will.

And that as distributors of brands, we need to be ready for the next stage of life of the products that are being sold.

Shelley E. Kohan (17:27)
That’s amazing. So if you had advice to give to brands to tell them, okay, if you’re thinking about re-commerce, here are the top three or four things that you need to be thinking about, what advice would you give them?

Romain Fouache (17:39)
Well, I do think that’s…

The trend of recommers is just a manifestation of the trend of people wanting to buy into something that is more the article in itself as we said. When people buy in recommers there is an element that is around pricing but today you can find anything at no price. You can just go on any fast fashion and buy things for half a dollar.

So price is not just an element. What you want is to feel that you have gotten something that potentially has its own history, that’s one. And second, has more value than the price you’re paying for. So it’s not just about paying a low price, it’s having an opportunity to have something that’s more valued than the price you’re paying for. And then it opens the question of what’s the value of a product that you buy? And there is potentially the functional value, but at its heart.

I’m deeply convinced that the purchasing decision is about the experience you feel with a product. And the more comprehensive it’s going to be, the more you’re going to be able to get people to feel value when they experience the product, and the more you’re actually able to sell them in that type of environment. So as you mentioned, yes, there’s the product description, there’s where it’s coming from, there’s the potentially sustainability element that may speak to some people, but maybe the specifics of how that specific product was being used or the activities it can be used for.

And so getting ready to actually enrich the experience you’re going to be offering on your product by making sure that you have a comprehensive view of your product from before it was manufactured to after it was being used is in my view almost the only way to be able to demonstrate that this product has more value than the price at which it’s being offered to as a secondhand type of object.

Shelley E. Kohan (19:34)
love that. And so that relates exactly back to my story. Now know you’re joining us from Paris, France, so thank you for joining us from far away. And I actually bought my re-used, gently used jacket in France. So, and I have to say everything that you just described about this, the value of the product being more.

than what I was looking for in price, I wouldn’t care what it was priced at because as soon as I saw it, I had this emotional attachment, one of a kind, I love this brand, I want this, and so you’re exactly right. So when you think about brands getting into the re-commerce space, you have to have a pretty solid acquisition story, right? How are you gonna procure or curate a resell that really is attractive to your target market, right?

Romain Fouache (20:00)
you

Yes, and how you’re going to be telling the story because from what I understand of what you said, actually had a… you were physically in store when you saw that jacket, so you can create a type of emotion when you’re in store, but a large part of that e-commerce is actually done online, so how do you recreate this type of feeling online? The only way you can do that is by having as clear and comprehensive information around that.

Shelley E. Kohan (20:32)
Yes.

Romain Fouache (20:50)
product and then having people experience it for whatever means you can so that they have some level of that connection. Because I I do believe that brick and mortar offer an experience that will never disappear. It will always be there. But yes, part of it is being captured by online websites. I’m deeply convinced that part of that is going to be captured by agent e-commerce. ⁓ But ultimately, we need to be ready to

make up for the limitations of each of these media. When you’re online, you don’t have the ability to touch the product, so how do you actually replicate for that experience? When you’re on an agent e-commerce or conversational AI environment, you don’t have the look and feel of your website anymore, you don’t have the specificity of your user experience, so how do you make up for that? And making up for that is just making sure that you can offer a view of your product that is more comprehensive, that is…

better ⁓ tailored than what others might be doing. I don’t believe in product slope. AI makes it very easy to generate content today. so yes, I can take a picture of your jacket and generate 50 pages of content on the jacket. But it’s just going to be lukewarm content because it’s the content that’s made up out of a very limited amount of information that is the picture. But if…

Shelley E. Kohan (21:59)
Yeah.

Romain Fouache (22:14)
you can actually find out who made the jacket, where it’s coming from, what was the material, how it’s been used by a famous singer on stage, what people are seeing of that jacket online and actually package the data in the right way, even when you don’t even have a website and you’re on agent e-commerce, you’re going to be able to offer an experience that might create that wants to buy. That emotion, that… ⁓

what’s the best way to describe it but that’s moments where you feel like yes this is what I want to buy this is what I want to have as my own

Shelley E. Kohan (22:55)
love that and one of the reasons I invited you on the podcast is because Akeneo is known for what we would call the new retail currency which is data and transparency. And so ⁓ what you just said is so perfect because you you have to create these brand stories. There’s too much product, there’s too much you can get at every single price level so you really have to create that story. So is there anything else that you would like to add before we end our conversation today?

Romain Fouache (23:23)
Now I just want to say thank you very much for that very insightful conversation. mean, we’re monitoring closely how consumer behaviors are changing towards transparency, towards sustainability, towards secondhand and pricing. And yes, it is quite challenging to be ready for it, but we’re definitely here to help all of these brands actually manage these changes.

Shelley E. Kohan (23:44)
That’s great. And I think our listeners can get your survey from the Akeneo website, right?

Romain Fouache (23:49)
Yes, the Akeneo

website actually has that survey available, so don’t hesitate to look at the consumer survey for first quarter of 26 that has just been released a few weeks back.

Shelley E. Kohan (24:00)
Thank you so much, Romain. Thanks for being here.

Romain Fouache (24:02)
Thank you very much, Shelley.

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Retailing During Wartime https://therobinreport.com/retailing-during-wartime/ Wed, 04 Mar 2026 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=134790 Retailing During WartimeRetail, which has always been a canary in the coal mine with regard to the behavior of our overall economy, will now be under even more significant pressure this year. Retail does, after all, make up some 70 percent of the U.S. economy. The guarded prognosis, widely held by many, if not most, industry leaders, becomes even more problematic with a war underway in Iran. If this conflict becomes a “forever war,” inflation could become explosive. ]]> Retailing During Wartime

The publicly stated explanation for this war, which is taking place between the U.S. and Israel in Iran, is the explicit intent to foment regime change. It’s anyone’s guess how this conflict will proceed or eventually end. Since World War II, regime changes have almost never succeeded as planned or anticipated. Not in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Yugoslavia, the USSR, Afghanistan, or Syria, to name just a few conflicts.

How will the war in Iran affect the retail industry? And the answer is: Disruptions in trade and travel will force retail to take a conservative path in 2026.

Retail Predictions on the War with Iran

Like it or not, a lot of economic—and therefore retail effects—of this brand-new conflict will hinge upon the conditions surrounding the safe passage of tankers through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. This is where 15 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas originates and transits. Analysts estimate that even using alternate routing, a serious constraint in the Persian Gulf and at Hormuz could remove 8 to 10 million barrels per day from the market, enough to add perhaps $20 a barrel to crude oil prices if conditions worsen.  Oil prices, currently at $72 a barrel, have already begun to climb and could easily hit, if not well exceed, $100 a barrel if this conflict isn’t quickly resolved, according to many economists who follow this lifeblood of the world’s economy. In trying to make sense of this new war, the prediction of a four-to-five-week engagement doesn’t sound credible. What is now happening in Iran is not in any way analogous to what just happened in Venezuela.

Is This Gas Shortage Déjà Vu?

So far, this war does not foretell the disastrous, albeit short-term, gasoline shortages that occurred in late 1973 and early 1974 when OPEC created an oil embargo on U.S.-bound petroleum shipments. Then, gasoline supply became extremely scarce; strict rationing took place in most major market centers. The retail business, broadly writ, was decimated for months on end. I was a Department Manager at A&S’s largest branch store in Hempstead, Long Island. Business dropped like a rock everywhere except in downtown Brooklyn, where gasoline was rationed throughout Metro NYC. If you couldn’t fill your car’s tank with a limited, every other day allotment of gasoline to get to work, you certainly weren’t predisposed to go shopping if you didn’t have to.

Since then, thanks largely to the onset of oil shale extraction techniques, the U.S. has developed significant oil independence. But this war does foretell a highly likely increase in already inflated energy prices. Historically, a $1 increase in crude can translate into roughly a 2 to 3 cent per gallon move at the pump; one analyst recently pegged the near-term pass-through at about 13 cents per gallon from the latest run-up. Higher fuel prices hit shoppers twice: directly at the gas station pump and through transportation surcharges embedded in the supply chain of the products on shelves.

More Economic Uncertainty

This new pressure on our economy will pile up on top of whatever replaces Trump’s illegal tariff strategy along with already rising retail prices of just about everything that is widely consumed by us all, and unprecedented increases in healthcare expenses. None of this bodes well for an already inconsistent retail environment with an industry struggling with uneven performances at the bottom of the retail food chain at stores like Target, instability in the middle at stores like Kohl’s and Macys, and chaos at the very top as Saks Global attempts to unwind its completely self-induced train wreck.

How will this affect Wall Street and all those consumers whose disposable incomes are directly or indirectly affected by the performance of the Street? Will a handful of tech companies, which have propped up the stock market throughout 2025, continue to provide air cover for an already stressed U.S. economy? Will the increased use of AI tech products continue to curtail new employment and fuel the increasingly evident presence of aggressive layoffs? I can’t predict the behavior of the stock market, but I think it’s clear that unemployment is going to become an increasingly problematic issue here. Reshoring remains a pipe dream as a near-term economic driver. The metal bending and needle trades are not, and maybe never will resurge in any meaningful way, certainly not this year.

Early Warning System

Retail, which has always been a canary in the coal mine with regard to the behavior of our overall economy, will now be under even more significant pressure this year. Retail does, after all, make up some 70 percent of the U.S. economy. The guarded prognosis, widely held by many, if not most, industry leaders, becomes even more problematic with a war underway in Iran. If this conflict becomes a “forever war,” which Trump promised would never occur on his watch, inflation could become explosive.

Reportedly, the American consumer, without regard to income level, currently lives paycheck to paycheck and is going to get hammered. They will support necessities as they have always done during difficult times, such as during Covid-19. But that’s it; discretionary purchases, otherwise known as general merchandise products, will get hammered as well.

Price will continue to be the primary driver of retail success and, as we’ve seen, not all retailers have the financial wherewithal and the assortment and merchandising disciplines to prevail. Is it possible that new fashion ideas will captivate the American consumer? Yes, but the consumers’ enthusiasm is invariably going to be muted.  Add to all of this the upcoming November midterm elections will add fuel to the angst that seems to be increasingly blanketing consumer confidence. 

A Forever War?

In my opinion, Trump will want to end this conflict as quickly as possible, but the Israelis are “in it to win it” and not predisposed to back off. Now, with the entire Middle East theater under fire, the likelihood that this conflict spills over into further disruptions in trade and travel is very real. In the face of all of this, conservatism in plans and outlook is vital for all retailers to navigate successfully, at least through the balance of this new year.

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A Store Is Not a Fulfillment Center https://therobinreport.com/a-store-is-not-a-fulfillment-center/ Tue, 17 Feb 2026 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=129616 A Store Is Not a Fulfillment CenterRetail is in a moment of transition. It is missing something fundamental: a systems thinking approach to making decisions with the operational infrastructure to support them. Asynchronous decision-making is not only a hidden cost, but it can also overwhelm a store masquerading as. Fulfillment center. ]]> A Store Is Not a Fulfillment Center

Many of today’s retail leadership decisions are smart, timely, and grounded in real customer behavior. They respond to competitive pressure, unlock new revenue streams, and make sense on management dashboards. The challenge is not the decision strategy itself. The challenge is the consequences when those decisions reach the store level.

The Risk of Quiet Erosion

Across big-box, specialty, and dollar retail, store operations and customer experience are quietly deteriorating. Store formats are not keeping up with the pressure of executing additional strategies. The teams aren’t failing, but stores are being asked to absorb a growing level of complexity without the physical space or operating models required to support it. New initiatives are layered onto formats that have not meaningfully evolved for decades. Store leaders and associates are asked to do more with less. Over time, the physical environment, operational execution, and customer experience all begin to fray.

This is the cost of asynchronous decision-making when strategy advances out of step with the store and operations designed to carry it. The impact of this disconnect is rarely dramatic. Stores do not collapse overnight; instead, erosion sets in gradually.

Do high-level strategic decisions always make retail better? And the answer is: When decisions are asynchronous, operations at the store level can implode.

Supporting the Retail Ecosystem                                                                                     

A store is a living system. Design, operations, labor, and experience are interdependent. When one system changes independent of the others, pressure builds. This may sound like a retail fundamental, but in practice, it is increasingly ignored. Strategy teams launch initiatives, operations teams adjust processes, store teams absorb the changes, but the physical box stays largely the same.

As complexity accumulates, many stores stop feeling intentional. Visual clarity diminishes, stores become cluttered, and service thins. Customers may not consciously recognize the problem, but they feel it. Shopping takes longer, and finding help becomes harder. Experiences that once felt intuitive now feel compromised.

Retail leadership can no longer treat store design, labor, and operations as downstream considerations. When space, staffing, and execution are misaligned, even good strategies become counterproductive.

Solving One Problem, Creating Another

Flexible fulfillment illustrates this tension clearly. Drive-up, order pickup, and same-day delivery fundamentally reshaped retail convenience. For many brands, including Target, these programs drive loyalty, frequency, and trust. They have become table stakes; the business impact is real and necessary.

Inside the store, however, the consequences are increasingly visible. Selling space has been repurposed for staging. Carts, bins, and coolers interrupt the front of the store. Key destination categories are pushed deeper into the building. What was once a clear shopping journey becomes a hybrid environment, part showroom and part distribution hub, without being fully designed for either.

For shoppers, this creates friction. Pathways are less intuitive. Visual storytelling is compromised. The store feels busier but less engaging. For associates, the challenge is greater. They are asked to maintain service standards, support fulfillment, and manage additional tasks with fewer labor hours and without additional space. Flexible fulfillment efficiency may have solved the transaction, but the store absorbed the operational burden. The issue is not that fulfillment can live and operate successfully inside the store; the issue is that the format and operating model did not evolve alongside it.

The Cost of “Yes”

This pattern is not isolated. Michaels offers a timely example of how additive strategies compound inside a fixed box. Following Party City’s bankruptcy, Michaels moved quickly to expand balloons, party goods, and in-store celebration offerings. Strategically, the move made sense. Demand shifted rather than disappearing. These categories drive traffic and align with existing customer missions.

Soon after, Michaels acquired key intellectual property from Joann Fabrics and reintroduced fabric, sewing, and yarn through its Knit & Sew Shop. Again, the logic was sound. The customer overlap was real. The category demand existed.

Individually, these decisions were smart. Collectively, they created strain. Each addition brought new fixtures, replenishment cycles, training needs, and service expectations. Balloons require labor-intensive fulfillment, yet most stores lack dedicated service space. Customers wait in the same old checkout lines, slowing the journey for everyone. Seasonal transitions take longer as the store struggles to flex between celebrations, craft, and core assortments. More than one colleague shared their frustration from this experience with me and described waiting more than 30 minutes to get a few balloons filled with helium.

The result is not a strategic failure. It is operational overload. When store teams prioritize speed over polish, service becomes inconsistent. The environment feels crowded rather than curated. The experience suffers not because the ideas were wrong, but because the system was never redesigned to support them.

When Stores Become Catchalls

Retailers consistently underestimate how quickly complexity compounds at the store level. Every new initiative brings operational weight. When these are layered without subtraction, stores become catchalls for strategy rather than expressions of it. This directly affects customers. In-stocks soften as backrooms strain. Visual clarity disappears as adjacencies blur. Associates are harder to find because they are fulfilling, resetting, or troubleshooting. The shopping journey becomes fragmented.

This is not an argument against innovation. Retail must evolve. Categories will expand. Services will change. The risk is not ambition. The risk is accumulation without editing. Too many retailers add without asking what must be removed, what deserves dedicated space, and whether labor and operations can realistically support the change.

What It Looks Like When It Works

Some smart retailers are proving that complexity does not have to degrade experience. Dick’s Sporting Goods is an example. The House of Sport concept is not just about size or spectacle; it is about intentional design and operational alignment. Dedicated zones allow shop-in-shops and brand partnerships to thrive without disrupting the core format. Customers are clearly directed to go for what is new. Store teams execute major resets when stores are closed, reducing friction and improving quality. New concepts integrate seamlessly into the broader environment rather than competing with it.

Alo Yoga demonstrates similar discipline in far smaller spaces. Seasonal transitions and color shifts happen quietly and cohesively. The store never feels in flux, even as product focus changes. The experience remains calm, intentional, and thoughtfully curated. This doesn’t happen by accident. Thoughtful assortment decisions curated for the space, space planning transition plans that are highly organized, and the team is deployed at the right time bring this to life flawlessly every time.

Walmart offers another instructive example. Through its Store of the Future initiative, the company redesigned up to 650 locations last year. These remodels expand pickup and delivery capacity, modernize pharmacies, widen aisles, and reconfigure checkout and service zones. Crucially, operational functions are pushed back of house rather than spilling onto the sales floor. By evolving the format and operating model alongside new strategic priorities, Walmart protects the customer’s experience while enabling associates to work more efficiently. This thinking supports where the business is headed, not where it’s been.

These retailers share one thing in common: they redesigned the system, not just the strategy.

The Discipline Retail Needs Now

Retail is entering a phase where the hardest work is not ideation. It is editing.  Winning retailers will not be those who launch the most initiatives, but those who decide which ideas deserve physical expression and redesign their stores and operating models accordingly. That means making explicit tradeoffs, investing in space where service is required, and aligning labor models with the reality of execution.

The store is where strategy becomes real. If it cannot absorb decisions cleanly, those decisions are incomplete. The future of physical retail depends less on what brands say yes to, and more on how intentionally they build environments and operations that can sustain those yesses every day.

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How AI Propels FedEx Customer UX https://therobinreport.com/how-ai-propels-fedex-customer-ux/ Fri, 30 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=125614 Retail Unwrapped Podcast Art 3Join Shelley and Jason Brenner, Senior Vice President Digital Portfolio at FedEx as they delve into the fascinating world of returns logistics and how the process has evolved. Jason says consumer familiarity with ‘no box, no label’ returns jumped from 37 percent to 48 percent in just one year. ]]> Retail Unwrapped Podcast Art 3

Customers have high expectations in their transaction experiences that do not end with the purchase. Today’s empowered and convenience-focused consumers want easy returns, and FedEx is on a mission to make that a reality using AI as a tool to improve the experience.  Join Shelley and Jason Brenner, Senior Vice President Digital Portfolio at FedEx as they delve into the fascinating world of returns logistics and how the process has evolved. Jason says consumer familiarity with ‘no box, no label’ returns jumped from 37 percent to 48 percent in just one year. He attributes the increase to consumers’ perceived value around the experience. “Nearly half of U.S. customers say they’re now familiar with ‘no box, no label’ returns and the usage continues to increase year over year; the reason is that once shoppers try it, they understand how convenient and how low stress it can be,” he adds. Their conversation deconstructs shipping logistics and reveals why confidence comes from predictability and visibility that is grounded in a simple UX supported by reliable communications with thoughtful updates throughout the post-purchase journey. As with any customer service, trust, reducing stress and anxiety and managing expectations are crucial. Listen and learn how this iconic logistics organization continues to push the envelope to deliver better customer experiences.

Special Guests

Jason Brenner, Senior Vice President Digital Portfolio, FedEx

Shelley E. Kohan (00:03)
Hi everybody and thanks for joining our weekly podcast. I’m Shelley Kohan and I’m very excited to welcome Jason Brenner, who’s Senior Vice President Digital Portfolio at FedEx. So welcome, Jason.

Jason Brenner (00:17)
So great to be here, thanks for having me.

Shelley E. Kohan (00:19)
Absolutely. So I know FedEx just came out with their big return survey and I was really fascinated by it because it shows a lot of AI-powered support along with the consumer growing demand of no box, no label options. So I’d love to get some insight from you about that and also love to hear about returns overall. So coming out of Christmas, I don’t know if you, it’s only what, three weeks?

⁓ But can you tell us a little bit about how returns wore this Christmas volume wise compared to last year or expectations as a starting point?

Jason Brenner (00:57)
You know, we’re still in it, but the returns volume is actually meeting expectations. ⁓ Our volume was up slightly year over year from a ⁓ overall shipping perspective, and returns are ⁓ trending in line with that volume increase. But for us, what we’re really focused on is improving and empowering our customers.

to make sure that that returns experience is great for their consumers. And we’re doing that through improving visibility, simplifying the experience, and pretty excited to see how that’s panning out this peak season and post-peak season. So excited to talk more about that.

Shelley E. Kohan (01:41)
interesting is that, ⁓

so the survey showed that like 53 % of consumers found AI, quote unquote, customer service, more satisfying than human agents. And I think that’s pretty cool and remarkable because I’m not sure the consumer’s quite there yet with AI agents.

tell me a little bit about that and ⁓ how is that working? How are they becoming more comfortable with this technology?

Jason Brenner (02:06)
It’s so funny you picked that out. To me, that was one of the most surprising things that we found in that survey as well in the research we did. I take during returns, most customers really just want quick, straightforward answers. You think about your experience ⁓ doing a returns process. What are you looking for? You’re looking for what are the steps? What’s the timing? What’s the status? And AI power tools are getting better literally by the week.

at delivering information as quickly as possible and doing so consistently and doing so in a human tone and doing so that’s grounded in trustworthy data. So from our perspective, it’s less about AI, it’s less about the technology itself, it’s more about how do you just keep pushing the envelope on reducing friction, driving speed to resolution or speed to information. ⁓ So when customers can get good answers right away, ⁓

the experience just feels easier and customers or consumers feel more in control. So I think that’s kind of what that 53 % number was getting at, to your point.

Shelley E. Kohan (03:13)
So what I find really interesting is that, you know, I always said, you know, consumers have always been a little bit ahead of retailers, right? And then the retailers kind of adapt to where consumers are. But I think with returns, it’s the, it’s opposite. Like I think the industry has been ahead of the consumer offering like no box return labels and that type of thing. So customers are used to packing stuff up and dropping it off at FedEx already in an envelope or a box or a shipping label. But what’s also interesting in your survey,

this year is consumers are actually more familiar with no return labels and no boxes. So tell me a little bit about that.

Jason Brenner (03:52)
Yeah, I think we saw that ⁓ the familiar familiarity. I messed up that word, but ⁓ with no box, no label returns jumped from 37 % to 48 % in just one year, ⁓ which is a big jump. And I think it goes back to the when you’re prioritizing work, you’re really thinking about how are you driving the value prop for customers and consumers and it’s oriented around experience. So.

If nearly half of US customers say they’re now familiar with no box, no label returns and the usage continues to increase year over year, the reason for that is once shoppers try it, ⁓ they understand how convenient it is, how low stress it can be, ⁓ and they don’t need to think about printing a label, packaging an item, taping it up. They simply need the item, the QR code, and they need to find a location where FedEx ⁓ has a ⁓ lot of locations that are really conveniently placed for the

broad ⁓ for most of the US population. So we’re pushing the envelope on experience, on convenience, ⁓ and consumers adapt onto that. So that’s where you see ⁓ that adoption curve really increasing year over year. I’d say when we look ahead, ⁓ we expect more retailers to keep scaling these solutions and continue to look for ways

to simplify the returns process. So ⁓ we’re going to continue pushing the boundaries of that value prop for sure.

Shelley E. Kohan (05:28)
think it’s great and it certainly makes it a lot easier. And the other thing from a retail perspective, if you think about it, if you’re relying on the customer to box it, label it, pack it, you know that’s gonna add time into that return getting back in the system as opposed to your code product and you go to the FedEx place drop off because that has to shorten the return time. is that like, are you seeing that?

Jason Brenner (05:53)
Yeah, and the fun thing is get to, know, our job is to, again, to push the value prop convenience, simplicity, ⁓ price, experience, etc. And then, yes, these operational considerations are second order, sort of second order effects from that. But then our job is to plan and react to it. And again, back to the value of AI and data. ⁓ Any changes that come

from our offerings that we create that impact our operations, we then have to study those ⁓ and see what the impacts are to our operations, to our retailers’ operations, and then plan for it and react. But the important thing is starting with the customer and starting with the consumer, and then managing the downstream effects of it, and ideally turning those downstream effects into areas of differentiation.

if you could capture it, study it, and plan for it, and change your operations around it. So we are seeing it, and we’re adapting. We like to say that we have the smarter supply chain, and we help our customers make their supply chain smarter. ⁓ So this sort of falls in line with that, from my perspective.

Shelley E. Kohan (07:09)
that’s great. And I think for retailers, if you can shave off two or three days from that return, getting back into their quote unquote inventory, that’s got to be tremendous for them.

Jason Brenner (07:18)
Absolutely, absolutely yes.

Shelley E. Kohan (07:21)
So the other thing that’s really interesting is that, know, consumers, when they’re doing in-person returns, they have a very, very high confidence level. And so I’m not sure it’s as high with shipping. So there’s like a gap between the confidence going in and returning something and the gap between shipping it out. So what is FedEx doing to kind of close that confidence gap between the two?

Jason Brenner (07:25)
you

Really, really good question and very top of mind for me right now. ⁓ So where does confidence come from? It comes from predictability from visibility ⁓ and visibility has to be grounded in sort of a simple UX, ⁓ simple communications, all of that. So whether a return happens in person ⁓ or through the mail, customers just want to know where their item is and what’s happening next. So our focus is on

reliable delivery, clear tracking, proactive, thoughtful updates throughout the post purchase journey. ⁓ So customers and consumers can easily see the status of their return and trust that it’s moving forward as expected. And that has to apply for returns and for shipping. So ⁓ those are two end to end journeys that we look at constantly and say, how do we drive

incremental improvements, then how do we also radically transform the experience to make it simpler and more trustworthy for our customers and consumers? ⁓ I think we did a lot of great work there going into Peak, and we’re seeing some of the output of that right now. ⁓ But we also have a lot more work to do. if you’re driving towards visibility and simplicity, it’s kind of like your work is never done.

⁓ So there’s always opportunities for us to improve there for sure.

Shelley E. Kohan (09:14)
And I think Jason, you’re right. I think what consumers worry about is that when they do a shipping return, it goes into a black hole. And then they have to sit and wait and wait and wait, right? And so I love getting those notifications saying, hey, we received your return. Hey, your return’s being processed. Because now I don’t have to worry about it. It’s one less thing I have to worry about as a consumer. So I think that’s great.

Jason Brenner (09:21)
Yeah.

Absolutely, I mean the key to great customer experiences is exactly what you just described. Put yourself in the seat of the customer and say what friction points come up, what creates stress, what creates unknown or anxiety, and then how do you solve for those and then even delight within those moments. So that’s what a lot of our team is focused on here.

Shelley E. Kohan (09:59)
Well, I think the other thing that’s really on the top of mind for consumers is this idea of businesses, retailers are now, some of them are starting to charge for returns. I think it’s like 40 % or something based on the information that was collected from your survey, it is 40%. But so that’s it, that’s a lot of businesses that are starting to charge for returns. And when you think about it, it makes sense because with all the other cost pressures, high labor costs, tariff costs,

Jason Brenner (10:00)
out.

Shelley E. Kohan (10:28)
cost of goods increases, et cetera, I can see how retailers are finding it that they have to do that for some customers. But what’s happening is consumers are actually making a purchasing decision based on whether or not they can actually make a return. And this is more so online than in-store shopping. So what are you doing to kind of balance ⁓ that in terms of customers making choices about

how what the return policy is based on what they’re purchasing.

Jason Brenner (11:00)
Yeah, let me let me add to your point there. So you mentioned 40 % of businesses are now charging for returns and on top of that specifically 59 % of consumers avoid retailers that charge for a return. So this is this is this is the conundrum. So that’s what our survey just kind of came out with recently. So we really encourage retailers to be intentional and transparent. Convenience.

Shelley E. Kohan (11:15)
Wow.

Jason Brenner (11:28)
does not mean that the retailer has to absorb every cost. ⁓ But I think what really breaks down the trust is surprises in the experience. ⁓ So again, being intentional ⁓ and being transparent with your customers upfront, ⁓ we see nets the best results from a lifetime value perspective. ⁓ You’re not just trying to win this purchase.

You’re also trying to win the lifetime value of the customer and the repeat rate and delivering on a strong customer experience. So ⁓ I think, again, we see trust breaking down the most on when surprises come up later in the journey at the time of return. So ⁓ the data shows that shoppers value that simplicity, that clarity. I guess when policies clearly communicate and are easy to understand,

then retailers have more flexibility to manage the costs without jeopardizing experiences. So ⁓ I don’t think there’s a silver bullet here. This is about balancing your customer experience versus the reality and the economics of your business. But the most important thing is being transparent with the customers.

Shelley E. Kohan (12:44)
No, that’s great. And let’s talk for a minute about the bad actors, the bad actors meaning fraudulent returns, because I do believe that there are sometimes when you have bad actors that are trying to return things fraudulently. And when you talk about businesses, they have stricter policies, shorter windows, and they’re trying to of curtail that fraudulent. So are you able to use ⁓ AI? How can you help retailers with the fraudulent returns?

Jason Brenner (12:59)
Yeah.

Shelley E. Kohan (13:14)
concerns.

Jason Brenner (13:15)
I appreciate the line of questioning because these stricter policies, the tighter ⁓ charging, all that reflects real pressures that retailers are facing to manage costs and returns fraud, is very, very real. ⁓ But I’d say net, our perspective is that that friction, that may be healthy friction, should be very targeted rather than universal.

⁓ And the good thing is the visibility and the data are key ⁓ to enable that and they’re becoming more and more mature. So what do I mean by that? ⁓ I’ll give you a very specific example. We support our customers by providing tooling that improves shipping tracking. One example of that is picture proof of delivery. ⁓ So that shows retailers and customers exactly when and where a package was delivered. ⁓

That extra visibility helps retailers reduce fraudulent replacement claims and associated costs. And there’s also in that process, ⁓ we are rolling out more and more ⁓ data points to help validate that the shipment was delivered, like GPS proof of delivery, ⁓ attempted proof of delivery. ⁓ All these data points add up within the retailer’s arsenal to help validate ⁓

that the delivery was made, the attempt was made, it was made to a specific address. ⁓ In addition to that, we are rolling out some enhanced post-purchase digital offerings coming very soon, ⁓ which will continue to simplify the returns process for both customers and businesses. So we have in-market, live, ⁓ we’re using predictive models, we’re using enhanced data points, ⁓ and we’re furthering that value prop.

which is really exciting to empower our customers to reduce their incident of fraud.

Shelley E. Kohan (15:16)
That’s great. And so can you, I know you probably can’t tell me what you’re doing yet because you haven’t announced it. Is that a good guess on my part?

Jason Brenner (15:23)
That’s a good guess. We’re announcing something

very, soon ⁓ regarding a post-purchase solution and a post-purchase suite. Yeah.

Shelley E. Kohan (15:30)
That’s awesome.

Okay, so my quote, I know you could probably answer this question. So when I think about the fraudulent returns, I’m with you. think creating all these rules and policies for the 10 % that affect the 90 % that are good returns, you know, just doesn’t make sense to me. So you have to figure out a different way to deal with that 10%. But in this new stuff that you’re doing, the predictive analytics using AI, that type of thing, do you think that you’re able to more quickly make a decision about returns that are fraudulent, which are not

thereby, you know, what we want to do is reduce the amount of time it takes to authenticate a return.

Jason Brenner (16:10)
And that’s exactly what we’re doing. What we’re doing is we’re providing our retailers, our customers ⁓ with more data ⁓ and showing them, here’s the use cases where others are identifying, this is how you leverage this data to make informed decisions. ⁓ We are not in the business of singling out individual customers or anything along those lines. We’re in the business of…

Hey, we have a tremendous amount of data at our fingertips. ⁓ Our network produces two petabytes of data a day, which is really crazy on the 17 million packages that we deliver per day. So we’re in the business of saying what data do we have available? Where are we seeing folks leverage that data to make informed decisions to improve their KPIs? ⁓ So that’s where we keep ⁓ trying to push the boundaries on.

Shelley E. Kohan (16:44)
Ha ha.

No, that’s great,

that’s great. And I’m going to impress you with my knowledge of petabytes and gigabytes. Isn’t a petadite a million gigabytes?

Jason Brenner (17:14)
I believe so, yes. Yeah. It’s a tiny effort for yes, it’s it. It means a ton of data we had. We have. We have some funny stats on, know, it’s it’s you know the classic the football fields, etc. It’s to the moon back, etc. But I’m forgetting the specifics of it, but net it’s a ton of data. But but the data in itself is the most important thing is what you do with it.

Shelley E. Kohan (17:15)
or something like that. Yeah. So that’s a lot. That’s a ton of data.

Yeah. So the other. Yeah.

Of course, definitely. So the other thing is, I don’t anticipate, and reading your survey, I don’t think you anticipate either. I don’t anticipate consumer behavior changing and returns becoming either obsolete or less. think the behavior we’ve seen, returns are going to continue. But what can change and what you guys are working on is how we deal with returns to reduce the friction points and to keep…

inventory in our systems at a more, at a quicker rate, right?

Jason Brenner (18:14)
Exactly. I mean, if I look at my own house, I don’t think returns are decreasing. I think from our survey, it showed that 40 % of consumers expect to return the same amount or more in the next year. yeah, think returns are just becoming increasingly a routine part of doing business, which means that we, as the supply chain providers and retailers, have to design for them intentionally.

⁓ It’s no longer an anomaly. ⁓ It’s just part of doing business. I think what that means for us is the experience has to be more connected. It has to be more predictable. It has to be more data-driven. ⁓ And it has to, back to the point of ⁓ transparency, ⁓ it has to reflect the voice and the values of the retailer ⁓ if the retailers want it to drive lifetime value for them.

So I think, yeah, it’s just, it’s a part of doing business.

Shelley E. Kohan (19:16)
I love all the stuff

that you’re working on and I love the fact, Jason, that you are absolutely putting the consumer in the center of this equation, which is what I think you have to do. So what are you most excited about in terms of designing for the emotional experience of returns, not the logistical one?

Jason Brenner (19:36)
Yeah, I think if you see in our language, it’s oriented around when we talk about our no box, no label solution called FedEx Easy Return, it’s all about convenience, being straightforward, being stress free. So you’re hitting on the point around the emotional experience for returns. All of that is very intentional. ⁓ Returns are often the last experience that a customer has with your brand. ⁓ So how that moment feels really matters.

It could be make or break whether or not they repeat with you and all retailers and brands are orienting around lifetime value of a customer, which a key part of that is that our customers repeating with us. Are they buying? Are they coming back to us again and again? And do they have a positive experience? So. You mentioned emotion. I that’s exactly right. We have to make this process simple. We have to set expectations clearly. We have to make sure customers feel informed.

We have to make the stress and the anxiety of a return, as you described, sort of like the black box. We have to make that go away. ⁓ So the emotional experience plays a big role in whether the customers come back to the retailer and the brand time and time again. So we think about it a lot.

Shelley E. Kohan (20:50)
That

is so true. Absolutely. So I’m going to close with two thoughts. One is I had a favorite retailer that I would buy from every single year for my whole family, my husband, my kids and me. And I had a bad return experience with them. I have not shopped them in seven years. I refuse to shop them.

Jason Brenner (21:04)
Yeah.

my goodness.

Shelley E. Kohan (21:10)
So when you say there’s an emotional attachment, that’s what happens and I won’t bore you with the details, but I’ve never shopped there ever again. I won’t even wear their stuff in my house anymore. But… ⁓

Jason Brenner (21:21)
Yeah, that’s That’s what we so you know

we are trying to make sure that we empower our customers that that doesn’t happen. ⁓ Yeah, you unfortunately. ⁓ When you you think about NPS, there’s you know this delight moments. There’s there’s the detraction moments and both. They’re both equally powerful, so we have to sell for both.

Shelley E. Kohan (21:31)
Of course!

That’s right. And the last thing, here’s a fun fact about me that you don’t know that will impress you, is I’ve actually toured your Memphis facility back in, yeah, I’ve been there. I toured it with your team. I’m gonna say 2004 or five-ish when I was with Saks Fifth Avenue. So I had a great experience and I really enjoyed looking at the facility there in Memphis.

Jason Brenner (22:07)
Yeah, it’s an unbelievable facility. What do you think? were your impressions?

Shelley E. Kohan (22:11)
I’m blown away about the amount of packaging proficiency and efficiency that takes place in that warehouse. It’s just unbelievable. I should say multiple warehouses, but the whole logistics and the planes and it was quite fascinating for sure.

Jason Brenner (22:26)
Yeah, I mean it really blows your mind to see it. I hope I get this right because we’re being recorded, but I believe 1.5 million packages goes through that facility every evening every night. 1.5 million packages every night through the Memphis Hub. ⁓ It’s just mind blowing ⁓ when you think about the scale of what we deliver. It’s amazing.

Shelley E. Kohan (22:51)
It is amazing and also I got

to visit Graceland too so that was fun too.

Jason Brenner (22:58)
That’s an added perk of coming down to Memphis.

Shelley E. Kohan (23:01)
It is. But thank you, Jason, so much for being here and telling us a little bit about what’s headed for customer returns. And we look forward to what’s being announced soon.

Jason Brenner (23:11)
Awesome. Likewise, speak to you soon. Bye.

Shelley E. Kohan (23:14)
Thank you.

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The Chinese Are Coming https://therobinreport.com/the-chinese-are-coming/ Mon, 26 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=123400 The Chinese Are ComingWhat is unquestionable is the deep ambition of Asian retailers to create a significant physical footprint in the U.S. and Europe, bolstered by their breakneck expansion rates to date, proving that they can do it just because they’ve done it. ]]> The Chinese Are Coming

While President Donald Trump continues to flip-flop on tariffs, the message coming out of this year’s MAPIC event in Cannes on the French Riviera was clear: Asian brands aren’t waiting around. They’re heading West, and they’re planning to scale up fast.

Westward Ho

The standout theme from MAPIC 2025—Europe’s biggest retail real estate event—was the surge of Chinese and Asian brands setting their sights on the U.S. and Europe, with aggressive expansion plans and a long-term outlook. “When it comes to the U.S., Chinese brands are in this for the long haul. They’re not chasing short-term profits. These companies are showing real confidence, creativity, and design strength,” said Sam Foyle, London-based Co-Head of Global Retail at broker Savills. As a result, he added that most Asian retailers appear to view tariffs as a temporary setback rather than as a deal-breaker.

Should U.S. and European retailers welcome the influx of Asian retail brands, or fear them? And the answer is: When it comes to expansion Chinese brands are in this for the long haul. They’re not chasing short-term profits. These companies are showing real confidence and most Asian retailers view tariffs as a temporary setback rather than as a deal-breaker.

Breakneck Expansion

Things are moving fast. As recently reported by The Robin Report, Chinese online giant JD.com is set to reshape the consumer electronics retail sector in Europe after it launched a takeover offer for Ceconomy, the parent company of German retail giants MediaMarkt and Saturn. The deal is valued at about $2.5 billion and is expected to be complete in the first half of 2026. Out of the gate, this positions JD to challenge Amazon’s dominance in Europe’s consumer electronics market.

But much of the activity is coming from brands with extraordinary aspirations. One of the fastest-growing is Miniso, a Guangzhou-based lifestyle retailer that’s been on a rapid global expansion streak. Founded in 2013, Miniso now operates around 8,000 stores across 111 markets, debuted in the U.S. in 2017 and has nearly 500 stores in Europe. Many American readers might first have taken note when it opened a flagship Times Square store in New York.

After breakneck expansion, Miniso has turned its attention to large-format superstores in high-traffic areas, leveraging partnerships with well-known IP brands like Marvel, Disney, and Barbie. After testing its Miniso Land concept in Shanghai, the company launched its first Miniso Land stores outside China in Madrid, Spain and Bangkok, Thailand and most recently at the West Edmonton Mall in Canada.

“The Miniso Land format averages about 10,000 square feet, much larger than our standard 3,000 square foot stores,” said Vincent Huang, Miniso Group Vice President and General Manager of Overseas Business. “They’re designed for experience, fun, and engagement, especially for younger shoppers.” According to Huang, one Miniso Land store in China has generated roughly $14 million in sales within its first nine months. While the company expects to slow its overall store openings slightly after years of rapid expansion, it plans to continue rolling out large flagship stores across major U.S. and European cities, focused far more on experience and engagement.

“While our store expansion pace may slow a little after some incredible years growing the brand around the world, we want to open more of these large stores where we can really showcase our IP collaborations and also our own IP,” he added. “I think that if you bring together products that really resonate with shoppers and then you are able to sell them at a great price, then you have a fantastic proposition,” he stressed.

Malaysia Joins the Road West

Another relative unknown in the West is Malaysia’s home improvement chain Mr. DIY, which continues to grow at an astonishing pace. Since launching in 2005, the chain has opened more than 5,200 outlets across 14 markets, including 1,000 new stores last year and another 1,200 expected by the end of 2025. The retailer is currently focused on expanding across Europe, including Spain, Poland, Turkey, and soon Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary and perhaps Greece. “Germany and neighboring markets are a key focus for us as we maintain our current growth momentum,” said Mr. DIY Chief Operating Officer Leo Gann.

Children’s apparel brand Balabala, part of China’s Semir Group, has also been pushing international growth and debuted in California in November. With over 4,500 stores in mainland China and Hong Kong and 100-plus overseas, the company has opened its first U.S. store at the Stoneridge Shopping Center in Pleasanton, CA and its debut European stores will open in Italy in 2026, with three sites identified.

Nicole Zhou, Senior Director of Semir & Balabala’s International Division, said that as the global fashion market faces new challenges, brands are increasingly being driven to look beyond traditional boundaries to find growth opportunities. “Over the next year, we’ll strengthen our Asian presence and expand into markets where we don’t yet have a physical footprint,” Zhou said. “The Middle East remains a strategic focus; our store count there is expected to double within the next 12 months. We’ve finalized a development deal in Italy and are preparing for broader European entry.” Zhou added that North America is currently in a “test phase,” both online and offline, as the company studies consumer behavior to shape its future expansion plans.

China’s Answer to Urban Revivo?

Urban Revivo, often compared with Spain’s fashion powerhouse Zara, is also making waves. Founded in 2006, the fashion chain has been expanding into major capital cities, opening flagship stores in New York, London, and other fashion-forward markets to raise global visibility. “Tariffs have minimal impact on consumer retail,” said Urban Revivo CEO Leo Li. “Still, we’re optimizing our cost structure and sourcing strategy to offset any potential increases.”

Meanwhile, tech and electronics powerhouse Xiaomi, best known for cell phones, is setting its sights on opening about 10,000 new Mi Home stores globally within five years and has recently entered the electric vehicle space. “We’re building on our brand recognition and moving quickly to open EV showrooms and stores across Europe and the U.S.,” said Eva Niu, Xiaomi’s Head of Retail for Western Europe.

The Shein Paradox

The influx of Chinese retailers and Asian products has not gone without controversy, and a lot of that has swarmed around the November opening of super-cheap fashion retailer Shein within the BHV Marais department store in central Paris.

The run-up to Shein’s debut ignited a political, cultural and industrial backlash in France that has touched on questions of national identity, ethical consumption and the future direction of French fashion. Yet despite the furor, the store attracted “more than 50,000 visitors” in its opening days, according to Frédéric Merlin, the unapologetic President of Société des Grands Magasins (SGM), which owns BHV. He reported an average basket of over $52 for customers and said that “nearly 15 percent of them went on to shop in other departments” of the department store.

Yet in the wake, Galeries Lafayette pulled its name from four more department stores licensed to SGM that were also set to introduce Shein shop-in-shops.  As a result, those plans were cancelled, while a string of brands including A.P.C., Agnès b, Aime Cosmetics, Figaret Paris, Le Slip Français, Maison Lejaby, Maison Serge Lesage and Odaje pulled out of the Paris BHV Marais store.

France’s parliament is also debating a proposed €2 ($2.15) levy on low-cost fashion imports, which could take effect in 2026 and would precede a similar European Union-wide tax that is not expected to be in place before 2028. The French initiative, intended as a stopgap ahead of the economic bloc’s delayed plans, would mark one of the first national attempts to rein in the surge of ultra-cheap apparel and merchandise flooding European markets from Asia.

Lawmakers are also considering introducing an additional environmental charge of up to $5.40 per parcel, which could rise to $10.80 by 2030, reflecting growing political pressure to address the environmental and social costs of fast fashion.

Industry bodies such as EuroCommerce have also called on the E.U. to rally the European nations around a more rigorous implementation of current rules and regulations over product compliance, claiming that many products targeting the continent do not meet European standards.

Gen Z Key to the China Syndrome

What is unquestionable is the deep ambition of Asian retailers to create a significant physical footprint in the U.S. and Europe, bolstered by their breakneck expansion rates to date, proving that they can do it just because they’ve done it.

Will Gen Z’s insatiable desire for cheap chic flag? That’s the hardest question to answer; a conscientious consumer generation that continues to be sidetracked by rock bottom prices, this conflicted demographic could be the key to whether the west can be won by Asia.

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Why We Can’t Quit China https://therobinreport.com/why-we-cant-quit-china/ Thu, 15 Jan 2026 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=120225 Why We Cant Quit ChinaWill 2026 see a continuation of the volatile tariff swings of 2025 and will the U.S. stop importing from. China? And the answer is: It is unlikely that tariffs will stabilize into something more predictable—not free trade, but a stable managed relationship where some doors close while others remain strategically open, especially when it comes to a pragmatic relationship with China.]]> Why We Cant Quit China

American protectionists had much to celebrate this holiday season. Recent topline trade data suggests that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have caused American importers to purchase much less from China than they did before Trump’s second administration launched its global tariff agenda on ‘Liberation Day’ in April, with a particular focus on turning up the heat on an already raging trade war with China. In turn, however, they have yielded little material benefit for U.S. consumers, neither in terms of increasing consumer affordability, redirecting investment towards U.S. innovation and productivity, nor—perhaps the federal government’s most pressing goal—to stop China’s increasing dominance of the world’s supply chains.

In fact, in most cases, tariffs and investment restrictions aimed at China have accelerated the opposite effect, and given China many additional months to solidify its position as everyone else’s most important trading partner.  U.S. manufacturing has not significantly replaced Chinese goods for American consumers. The restrictions have caused a diversion of imports to elsewhere from countries in turn, increasingly reliant on Chinese components and machines to produce them.

Will 2026 see a continuation of the volatile tariff swings of 2025 and will the U.S. stop importing from. China? And the answer is: It is unlikely that tariffs will stabilize into something more predictable—not free trade, but a stable managed relationship where some doors close while others remain strategically open, especially when it comes to a pragmatic relationship with China.

Down, But Not Out

American imports from China have indeed plummeted compared to 2024 levels, dropping 29 percent in November alone. The Trump administration’s effective tariff rate on Chinese goods has yo-yoed over the course of the year, and has added more than 40 percent to the cost of those imports, squeezing Chinese manufacturers and forcing American retailers to absorb higher costs or pass them to consumers.

Tariffs may have succeeded in reducing American purchases from China, but they have both failed to reduce overall American trade deficits and have accelerated China’s global market expansion at America’s expense. Chinese exports to Southeast Asia surged nearly 14 percent year-over-year in 2025 (a region that has been a key supplier of consumer goods to America).  Chinese exports to Africa jumped 27 percent, and nearly 9 percent to Europe—gains that more than compensated for lost U.S. sales and have allowed China’s global trade surplus to top $1 trillion trade surplus in the first eleven months of 2025—the highest ever recorded.

The tariff policy did achieve what it technically set out to do. Average effective tariff rates on Chinese goods reached 39.2 to 47.5 percent by mid-year. U.S. Census Bureau data reveals American imports from China were $242 billion through September 2025, compared to $439 billion in 2024—roughly a 45 percent decline.  Consumer confidence in holiday spending suddenly crashed: Gallup’s November consumer spending poll found gift purchase estimates dropped 23 percent from the month before, to $778, which represents the largest single-month decline the research house has ever recorded, steeper even than during the 2008 financial crisis. 

Despite this, the overall U.S.-China trade deficit has not moved much: Through September 2025, the bilateral merchandise trade deficit was  $160.5 billion, and is estimated to be around $214 billion for the full year.  2024’s deficit, of $295.5 billion, was higher, but China’s still clearly maintained the upper hand, and American businesses and consumers have paid the price.

Neither did Uncle Sam’s coffers overflow with tariff receipts. The federal government collected over $101 billion in tariff revenue between January and August 2025, but some studies suggested that as much as 25 percent in addition has been uncollected because importers changed purchasing patterns to avoid tariffs.

This reveals the core flaw in tariff-based trade strategy:  Global commerce is being redistributed, not rebalanced. Chinese goods never stopped flowing to global markets; they simply took detours around American tariff walls. This strategy has thinned margins for Chinese manufacturers, but it has kept China’s well-oiled export machine running smoothly, and increased its global lead over American producers in the process. Countries once bought American goods now purchase Chinese alternatives at significant discounts.

The U.S. government seems to have shot itself in the foot in its showdown with China.  Although America’s door is completely shut to China, signs of selective re-engagement are emerging. Biotech is one such area, and could be a harbinger of how U.S. retail and consumer goods more broadly could work back to a pragmatic trade relationship with the world’s biggest supplier.

China’s Medical Exemption

Despite the U.S. government’s relentless efforts to decouple its economy from China, and the particular success it has enjoyed in chilling cross-border trade and investment in AI, semiconductors and other strategic high-tech, American policy toward China is decidedly not unidirectional. American banks and businesses have found that some avenues are still open to them, particularly in market segments—like rare earth minerals or pharmaceuticals—where American industry has no other choice but to deal with China.  

Pharmaceuticals are a particularly thorny area, in part because, like digital technologies, they are seen as strategically sensitive. The U.S. BioSecure Act was first muted in January 2024 by bipartisan lawmakers prohibiting federal agencies and contractors from procuring biotechnology equipment or services from “companies of concern”—primarily state-linked Chinese firms. But to date, it has not been passed, although provisions were incorporated into the National Defense Authorization Act enacted in December 2025.

“There’s a hard firewall between Silicon Valley and China when it comes to AI or semiconductors, but in biotech we’re still able to receive U.S. investment,” says George Lin, Chief Strategy Officer at Hua Medicine, a Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical company focused on diabetes medications, financed by Arch Ventures and Venrock (the Rockefeller family’s venture capital arm). Hua continues to thrive—it hopes to soon launch a Type 2 diabetes treatment in the U.S., which has seen radical remission rates in its Chinese clinical trials. Lin sees his industry’s challenge for American manufacturers, retailers and consumers that lies at the heart of America’s anti-China stance, and the road back towards a more normal trading relationship. “The fact that attempts like the Bio Secure Act haven’t succeeded shows there’s an understanding—even in Washington—that cutting off this exchange would hurt innovation and patient care in the U.S., and globally.”

China has built extraordinary infrastructure for drug development, of both high quality and low cost. This makes decoupling economically irrational for American pharmaceutical companies, as it would simply slow global drug development without accelerating American innovation. This has led to a controlled re-engagement—and this could foreshadow how consumer retail supply chains could also, slowly, normalize.

The Long Road Back to Normal-ish

The future likely involves sustained differentiation rather than across-the-board decoupling. Sectors deemed strategic for military, intelligence, or advanced manufacturing purposes will face intensifying restrictions: semiconductors, advanced computing, synthetic biology applications, and quantum computing. Tariffs on standard consumer goods and manufacturing will persist, though probably at somewhat lower rates following the October 2025 agreement reducing reciprocal rates from 145 percent to 10 percent. But sectors offering benign applications with genuine human welfare benefits and where American independence proves economically irrational—pharmaceuticals, medical devices, basic research—will continue operating across geopolitical boundaries.

Will 2026 see a continuation of the volatile tariff swings of 2025? It is unlikely that they may eventually stabilize into something more predictable—not free trade, but a stable managed relationship where some doors close while others remain strategically open. China’s record $1 trillion trade surplus will underpin the country’s continued resolve to compete, and it is very unlikely that the rest of the world will have the manufacturing capacity or the political will to converge on protectionist policies on par with America’s. 

For U.S. consumers, there will be no immediate relief, as the world collectively fails to quit China. But as the ongoing cross-border collaboration in the pharma sector reveals, U.S. policymakers are capable of balancing national strategy with commercial realities. As economic pressures mount for the average American consumer, perhaps the government will begin to bring the same pragmatism they show in biotech into its broader tariff strategy.

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Retail in 2025: Tariffs, Tumult, and the Search for Sanity  https://therobinreport.com/retail-in-2025-tariffs-tumult-and-the-search-for-sanity/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 13:00:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=115192 pexels pixabay 2645072025 may go down as the year retail lost the plot — and tried to rewrite it at the same time.  At a recent Robin Report roundtable, four veteran retail experts — Mark Cohen, Warren Shoulberg, Phil Lempert, and Jasmine Glasheen […]]]> pexels pixabay 264507

2025 may go down as the year retail lost the plot — and tried to rewrite it at the same time. 

At a recent Robin Report roundtable, four veteran retail experts — Mark Cohen, Warren Shoulberg, Phil Lempert, and Jasmine Glasheen — unpacked a year shaped by political chaos, economic contradiction, and rapidly shifting consumer behavior. Editor Deborah Patton moderated the session, which revealed a retail industry both remarkably resilient and increasingly fragile. 

Here’s what we learned. 

Tariffs Are the New COVID 

When former President Trump reignited a global trade war in April, many hoped it would be political theater. Instead, it became a seismic shock. 

“Tariffs are the new COVID,” declared Warren Shoulberg, comparing the whiplash of constantly changing rules to the darkest days of the pandemic. “Retailers are waiting for the other shoe — or 1,400 shoes — to drop.” 

Mark Cohen went further, calling the tariffs an “unwarranted, possibly illegal, and completely chaotic disruption” that could take years to unwind, even if courts eventually strike them down. The move, he warned, was not only economically destabilizing but an echo of the pandemic’s disorientation: “It’s COVID redux, as far as I’m concerned.” 

Costco Takes a Stand — Alone 

If there was a hero in this story, it was Costco. 

The warehouse giant took the unusual step of suing the federal government, claiming the tariffs were illegal. “You have to respect Costco,” said Shoulberg. “They continue to not play by the White House’s rules.” 

But that courage underscored a larger disappointment. “Costco is the only big player that has stepped up,” said Cohen. “You would think the automotives, grocers, everyone would speak up — and they haven’t.” 

The AI Tipping Point (and Its Cracks) 

While 2025 brought supply chain chaos, it also saw the full arrival of artificial intelligence in retail operations — and not always with the promised results. 

Walmart led the way with AI-powered efficiency, but not every experiment landed. Jasmine Glasheen pointed to Target’s botched rollout of dynamic pricing, which sparked consumer backlash. “You’re telling customers, ‘We’re going to get every cent we can out of you,’” she said. “Why would anyone trust you?” 

Lempert echoed caution, warning that grocers rushing AI into the back office — like Kroger’s failed Mercado fulfillment centers — often underestimated complexity: “Just because we can do something doesn’t mean it’s going to work.” 

Still, the panel agreed that well-deployed AI could provide meaningful benefits, from smarter inventory management to personalized shopping lists. The challenge is how — and where — it’s introduced. 

The Supermarket Saga: SNAP, RFK Jr., and San Francisco Lawsuits 

Nowhere was the volatility of 2025 more palpable than in grocery. Phil Lempert, The Supermarket Guru, laid out the layers: SNAP benefit disruptions, sudden CEO departures, and lawsuits like the one out of San Francisco that targeted ultra-processed foods — which account for 70% of a typical store’s inventory. 

“If those products are banned in San Francisco, what happens to the rest of the store?” Lempert asked. “The implications are massive.” 

Adding pressure were RFK Jr.’s sweeping health mandates and a climate-driven spike in food costs. “Never in 25 years have supermarkets been this uncertain,” said Lempert. 

A GLP-1 Gold Rush Reshapes Food and Fashion 

If tariffs and lawsuits drove fear, GLP-1 drugs inspired frenzy. These weight-loss medications, led by brands like Ozempic and Wegovy, triggered a rapid industry response. 

Nestlé and ConAgra rolled out high-protein, GLP-friendly products. Kroger launched a private label line. Surcana data suggested GLP users would account for 35% of all food and beverage purchasing by 2030. 

Retailers also braced for downstream effects in apparel and health categories. “I never expected the traction to move this quickly,” Lempert said. And with pill versions pending FDA approval, adoption is likely to accelerate. 

Gen Z’s Sensory Overload and the Retail Backlash 

But not all disruption is policy-driven. 

Jasmine Glasheen described younger shoppers as “overstimulated” by in-store experiences. “78% of young consumers say they’re overstimulated,” she noted, praising Walmart’s low-sensory shopping windows while critiquing Urban Outfitters for cranking up the visual noise. 

Her broader thesis? Retail is overdue for a “return to calm.” 

“Low-sensory in-person and online experiences are the future,” she said. “Retailers need to get back to the humanity of shopping.” 

The New Class Divide in Shopping 

The conversation inevitably turned to inequality — and the hollowing out of the middle class. 

“Retailers are feeling the effects of economic asymmetry,” said Patton, citing data showing the top 10% of households account for 50% of retail spending. 

Consumers are gravitating toward two extremes: $22 smoothies at Erewhon on one end, private-label goods at Aldi on the other. “We’ve lost the middle,” said Shoulberg. “And that’s one of the great tragedies.” 

The panel noted a bifurcation in retail strategy. Some brands chase premium experiences (see: Whole Foods’ “Daily Shop” format), while others double down on off-price and discount formats. 

The Retail Crime Wave and Associate Protection 

If 2025 brought automation to the back office, it brought something uglier to the front of house: escalating violence and theft. 

Retail crime surged — but few arrests followed. “Only one in 48 reported shoplifting incidents results in arrest,” Glasheen noted. “And most aren’t even reported.” 

The burden has fallen unfairly on associates. “You can’t expect store associates to be your loss prevention team,” said Cohen. Lempert pointed to stores like Hy-Vee, which posted armed guards to deter crime. The question now is how to balance safety with welcoming environments, especially for next-gen consumers already dealing with mental health strain. 

What’s Ahead in 2026? 

Looking ahead to 2026, the retail industry faces a complex mix of economic headwinds and shifting consumer dynamics. Several panelists anticipate a significant downturn, with Mark Cohen forecasting a full-blown recession by Q3, while Warren Shoulberg warns the true cost of tariffs will come due midyear. At the same time, Jasmine Glasheen predicts a continued pivot toward lifestyle branding, as retailers seek emotional resonance with increasingly fragmented audiences. Climate change will also take center stage, particularly in grocery, where Phil Lempert expects persistent food inflation driven not just by policy but by environmental strain. In short, 2026 is shaping up to be a test of resilience — where adaptability, empathy, and operational discipline will define who thrives and who falters. 

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Never Underestimate the Power of Weather https://therobinreport.com/never-underestimate-the-power-of-weather/ Fri, 05 Dec 2025 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=112106 71Join Shelley and Evan Gold of Planalytics as they discuss the fact that the weather is more volatile now than it ever has been before with extreme weather events occurring in the U.S. every three weeks. Evan explains that retailers need to proactively plan with demand forecast accuracy that can increase overall profitability up to 30 percent.]]> 71

Full disclosure: Don’t ever underestimate the power of weather and its impact on retail. There is no other external driver that influences the consumer as frequently, meaningfully, and continuously as the weather. In fact, it influences more than a trillion dollars in retail sales on an annual basis. Join Shelley and Evan Gold of Planalytics as they discuss the fact that the weather is more volatile now than it ever has been before with extreme weather events occurring in the U.S. every three weeks. Evan explains that retailers need to proactively plan with demand forecast accuracy that can increase overall profitability up to 30 percent. Smart retailers incorporate weather analytics into their planning, so they are more weather aware and proactive instead of being reactive with flexible strategies in place as simple as putting weather-driven items in more prominent locations and ensuring the right staffing levels. The holiday selling season is subject to the weather since many retailers do 20% or even more of their annual sales in the month of December. Evan says the good news is that the first few weeks of December in the U.S. are going to continue with persistent, cold temperatures that are going to keep customers in that winter holiday mindset. Listen and learn why weather’s a very emotional topic and when retailers can get all functions of their business on the same page by proactively strategizing weather’s complex nature, the outcome is more profitable. 

Special Guests

Evan Gold, EVP, Global Partnerships & Alliances, Planalytics

Shelley E. Kohan (00:03)
Hi everyone and thanks for joining Retail Unwrapped. I’m very excited to welcome back Evan Gold, EVP of planalytics Welcome, Evan.

Evan Gold (00:13)
Thanks so much, Shelley. It’s great to be back with you again, and certainly want to wish you and your audience a happy holiday season.

Shelley E. Kohan (00:20)
⁓ thank you. Well, it’s going to be happier if the sales are there. And so today we’re going to talk about something that really impacts sales. So we just finished up Black Friday. So let’s talk a little bit about weather, something that really impacts holiday selling. I know for Black Friday, e-commerce did very well.

⁓ Whereas in stores had a moderate increase, maybe 1.7%, 2%, and the e-comm grew like over 10%. So let’s talk about Black Friday weekend and how did weather impact shoppers?

Evan Gold (00:55)
Yeah, I mean, as you know, Shelley, there is no other external driver that influences the consumer as frequently, meaningfully, continuously as the weather. There’s a trillion dollars in retail sales on an annual basis that are influenced by the weather. But for a lot of folks, it’s still not understood or the least measured and act upon factor ⁓ for retailers. So yeah, let’s talk a little bit about the weather because…

You know, as a business, that’s what we do. We help businesses, retailers specifically measure and proactively manage the impact that climate weather has on the consumer. So at a high level, you know, when we think about Black Friday and how the weather impacted shoppers and what that meant, ⁓ the weather really provided a good tailwind for most retailers and locations over Black Friday. I don’t know if you remember like in New York City, you know,

leading up to Thanksgiving, like the days leading up, it was very mild. think New York was over 60, right?

Shelley E. Kohan (01:50)
Absolutely

very mild. was very concerned about that.

Evan Gold (01:55)
And then, yeah, and right on cue, Mother Nature brought in some really frigid cold temperatures into the eastern half of the US right on Thanksgiving, continued through the holiday weekend. Most eastern markets were anywhere from five to 15 degrees below normal. All of that translated to an ideal environment for retailers who had and were marketing seasonal inventory, scarves, gloves, hats, sweaters.

you know, the like. So for most major markets, Black Friday as well was mostly dry for across the US, which meant also that customers were able to get out and get to the stores. But it wasn’t dry for the entire weekend.

Shelley E. Kohan (02:33)
So let me ask you something. So I know the Midwest had a big snow drop on them. And so I’m wondering if you saw any data about the Midwest shopping behaviors, if they were any different than the rest of the country that was more dry for the weekend.

Evan Gold (02:50)
Yeah, definitely, while Black Friday was dry, that snow that you were just talking about really hit the Midwest over the weekend. Chicago, think, had its highest November snowfall ever on Small Business Saturday. And a lot of the Midwest were hit by that snow. And again, even for a place like Chicago that knows how to deal with snow, they’re not used to that volume of snow this early in the season.

Shelley E. Kohan (03:05)

Evan Gold (03:18)
So we checked with a partner of ours, Facteus, which is the largest provider of consumer track transaction data. And they noted that the Midwest did see a significant increase in online spending on Saturday and Sunday. And they did have growth on Monday as well, but less growth compared to Saturday and Sunday. So we think a lot of that demand, a lot of that online sales were just simply pulled forward because customers were inside.

And that was a pretty big shift. Ultimately, Snowfall can negatively impact foot traffic in the stores, particularly as well as restaurants, entertainment destinations. But it didn’t stop the shoppers. It just shifted where they made those purchases.

Shelley E. Kohan (03:59)
That’s interesting. I think the other thing that’s interesting is I read that a lot of apparel sectors were up. So once it gets cold, a lot of those cold weather items are in apparel. Are there certain products or categories that are more influenced by weather and specifically cold weather?

Evan Gold (04:16)
Yeah, so when you’re talking about cold, obviously, you know, seasonal apparel does very well, the colder that it gets. When you’re talking about snow, it’s very much need based, right? So we’re talking about Chicago in the Midwest, things like ice melt, but even, you know, hot coffee and, you know, firewood and other, other categories, you know, those need based items obviously do do very well. ⁓ When it is warmer than normal,

like places where it was out west, as well as it’s dry, that actually, believe it or not, does well for things like outdoor decorations, and you know, because people will be outside more if they feel, ⁓ you know, like being outside more over the holiday weekend, they will do outdoor activities. So lights and holiday decor do well, as does obviously foot traffic in the malls and shopping centers, entertainment destinations and the like.

Shelley E. Kohan (04:52)
⁓ yeah.

That’s really interesting. So when I lived on the West Coast, I lived there for about, I don’t know, 14 years or so. We always did the boat parades. That was, that’s such a popular outdoor activity. So that makes a lot of sense that people will invest in outdoor decor and stuff like that.

Evan Gold (05:25)
Yep, absolutely. just really, consumers are spending, it’s just where, when, and what they’re putting in their baskets.

Shelley E. Kohan (05:33)
That’s great. So, okay, so now we have Black Friday’s done and over with, Cyber Monday’s done. What are you expecting over the next few weeks?

Evan Gold (05:41)
Yeah, I mean, we are at that time of year, Shelley, where every day matters, right? And many retailers, as you well know, can do 20%, maybe even more of their annual sales in this month of December. So it is crunch time. Now, the good news is the first few weeks of December in the US are going to continue this cold, persistent cold temperatures that we’ve experienced. that’s going to do.

That’s going to keep customers in that winter holiday mindset. Now we do have some winter storms this week ⁓ and threats for next week as well. It’s very different if those storms hit on the week versus the weekend, ⁓ you know, as it relates to those major population centers. So overall, we expect continued favorable demand for seasonal apparel. Again, great news for your retailers that are listening today.

Shelley E. Kohan (06:35)
No, that’s great. So I have a question, Evan. So this is always kind of like, so the retailers have already bought Christmas ⁓ holiday ⁓ items. They’re in the store. They’ve been shipped. They’re there. They’re ready for consumers. So they have to sell them. It’s not like you’re not going to sell them. You have to sell them. So this idea of, you know, isn’t it about not so much the sales of all those items, but the profit? So the more you market down, less profit. So when we have cold weather,

We can sell it at a higher profit, at a better rate, turnover rate, but if it gets warmer or if the weather is off what is expected, then that is when we start losing profit, right?

Evan Gold (07:16)
Yeah, we talk all the time about the fact on that weather is so important in December. Everybody, yes, everybody is out shopping, but that’s really like a common myth that weather doesn’t necessarily influence the shopper in December, because it influences the stores and channels that they shop at, but it’s also directly related to the items that they put in their basket. So December is that highest volume month of the year.

So a small change in spending translates to a large amount of dollars being shifted out of categories, into categories and specific channels. and every retailer obviously wants those sales to take place earlier in the season ⁓ so that profitability will be there ⁓ more so than let’s say later in the season.

Shelley E. Kohan (08:03)
It’s kind of interesting. It’s kind of a tug and pull. They want the sales to happen early and fast at a high profit, but they also don’t want to be sold out of goods either.

Evan Gold (08:13)
That’s right. That’s right. So they’re constantly thinking, so, so what are some

of those retailers, you know, doing about that? Right. They, you know, I don’t know about you, but my email inbox was inundated with a bunch of offers over the, over the holiday weekend. Now those retailers that were able to proactively serve up messaging that was targeted to the conditions where the customer was, you know, so if you’re in Chicago and you get that cold weather, that snowy type of message, right, you’re more likely to go out.

Shelley E. Kohan (08:38)
Yeah.

Evan Gold (08:41)
to those stores or buy those brands, ⁓ which again is great from a profitability perspective, right? So if you have, and large retailers as well as small businesses all have this capability to target customers where they live so that they can buy the items that they’re looking for them to make those purchases on. Assuming to your point earlier, they’re in stock, right? And we’re at that time in the season, everything should be in the store.

Shelley E. Kohan (09:08)
That should be in the store. So outside of

proximity marketing, which is really trying to target, you know, in that localization, that local areas, what else can retailers do? Are they just simply, you know, they just have to take what Mother Nature dishes out or are there actual things that they can do?

Evan Gold (09:25)
Yeah, absolutely there are things you could do. You’re definitely not at the whim of mother nature at this point, right? We talk all the time about proactively addressing the impact of weather, right? So ⁓ having flexible strategies in place, know, something as simple as just putting those weather-driven items in more prominent locations. So when they come in, right, they have what they’re looking for. You’re in stock on those items, certainly leveraging the power of social media to drive that.

Tuning staffing levels, right? If you know that you’re gonna get more or less customers in on certain days, you can tune staffing levels. ⁓ Certainly adjusting replenishment on high velocity goods to make sure you stay in stock on key items, right? That is a big one. The last thing you want is a customer coming in looking for an item that you don’t have, right? So keeping those service levels high. ⁓ And then even unique services when you have inclement weather. If you were able to offer delivery or other… ⁓

services that you can best serve the customers during, again, this all-important period.

Shelley E. Kohan (10:31)
That’s great. Those are great tips. The other thing I want to ask you about is gift cards. So I know gift cards keep growing and growing in popularity. They’re gifted out. Retailers actually don’t see the revenue of the gift card until the purchase is made, right? But is that, do you have any insights on gift carding and is there any influence on gift carding and weather? Is there a correlation there?

Evan Gold (10:53)
Yeah,

there absolutely is. on a personal level, I love gift cards. I know some people think that that’s a little impersonal. I love getting them to stores that I like. And again, most people, as you pointed out, let me restate that retailers, it’s a liability until they’re actually redeemed. And for a lot of consumers, the redemption doesn’t come until later in the season, ⁓ or maybe even into January. So the weather.

Shelley E. Kohan (10:56)
Really?

Evan Gold (11:22)
becomes a driver for when, where, how, and what those gift cards get redeemed for. So there’s influences really into late into the season and into January in terms of how gift cards are influenced by the weather and how the customer executes or redeems them.

Shelley E. Kohan (11:42)
Very interesting. I want you to put on, get out your crystal ball and I want you to tell us what’s in store for 2026. Whether is there ⁓ any kind of advice or tips you can give for retailers going into 2026? What are we going to be seeing?

Evan Gold (11:58)
Yeah, so, you know, the devil obviously is in a lot of those those details based on what you sell. But the one thing that I will tell you is volatility, right? The weather is more volatile now than it ever has been before. have extreme weather events in the US every three weeks versus, you know, back in the 80s, we would have them every four months, right? So everybody knows that the weather is more volatile now than we’ve ever had before. So you’ve got to proactively plan for that.

that volatility. And obviously as you just maybe more, you know, in the near term look kind of through December and even into January, you know, there’s going to be those opportunities and being in a position that you could take advantage of those opportunities because again, the weather is going to be very volatile as you move through the winter, as you move through 2026. understanding what that influences on your customers so that you can better service them.

⁓ and increase your profitability is really what this is all about.

Shelley E. Kohan (12:58)
I know, and Evan, know you won’t do this, but I will do this. And Planalytics, I’ve known Planalytics for I think over a decade, to be honest. I know you do a lot of work with FIT, Fashion Institute Technology, so thank you for that, teaching students about weather and the importance of weather. But when you think about working with retailers, if you could just maybe recap, what are some of the benefits of really looking at, know, using Planalytics or looking at weather?

as a proactive approach to the business. It’s always been reactive as opposed to proactive. as the weather becomes more volatile over time, how can we better be proactive with it?

Evan Gold (13:39)
Yeah, there are a number of use cases around this and we have, you know, all of our clients were, and some of them will be speaking at the NRF show about this as well around use cases around these demand analytics. Very common use cases are around demand forecasting, allocation, replenishment, making sure that you’re in stock, right? Accounting for the weather influences down to the every product, every time period.

every location, incorporating that into the systems and processes that a retailer uses, essentially putting it inside their DNA so that it’s ultimately so they can better serve their customers, Whether that’s servicing them through a marketing perspective, from an in-store perspective, making sure they have enough inventory on the shelves, right? We’re talking around demand forecast accuracy increases of up to 30%, overall profitability on an annual basis of two to six percent.

by incorporating these analytics into those day in and day out activities that every retailer does, now you’re more weather aware and to your point, Shelley, being proactive instead of being reactive. The other thing that I’ll just kind of point out is it gets everybody on the same page around weather impact, right? Weather’s a very emotional topic ⁓ and people may have different viewpoints based on where you are or based on prior positions you’ve held or the business that you’re managing.

This gets everybody on the same playing field for everything from being proactive, but also just in terms of reporting. Exactly how much did weather influence the business helps you better understand what else is happening, especially at this time of year.

Shelley E. Kohan (15:17)
No, that’s great. And it just goes back to the basic principles of our business, Retailing 101, which is right product, right place, right time, and the right quantities at the right price. With the right weather, right. So you mentioned NRF, you and I kind of have a longstanding joke between us where we, you know, we’re connected, we are networked, but we only physically see each other like once a year, except this year we’re going to see each other twice this year, which is great.

Evan Gold (15:28)
with the right weather.

Shelley E. Kohan (15:47)
But are you going to the NRF show? You mentioned you’ll be there.

Evan Gold (15:50)
I will be there, the Planalytics team will be there, it’s retail’s big show, the annual convention, early January in New York. It is going to be cold, and it’s always cold in New York. for your listeners that are coming to the Javits Center for NRF, look for Planalytics, we’re at booth 4039, that’s 4039. We’re happy to meet up with you, Shelley, meet up with your listeners, continue the conversation. It definitely is a highlight of the year that…

We do get to see each other, something that I’m looking forward to. We’ll have a number of events and sessions that Planetlytics is gonna feature. So feel free to connect up with us, go to planalytics.com and let’s connect up in New York ⁓ as well in Do It In Person. I’m looking forward to it.

Shelley E. Kohan (16:33)
No,

that’s fun. It’s so funny. Every time I go, I mean, I’ve been attending NRF for three decades, probably. ⁓ And the boy has the show changed from 30 years ago. Let me just say that. It’s more like a technology show these days. But I do love going. And every time I walk into Javits on the first day, oddly, one of my first thoughts are, am I going to see Evan here this year? ⁓ So.

Evan Gold (16:48)
It really is.

Hahaha

Shelley E. Kohan (17:00)
That’s really interesting. The other thing, speaking of weather, is a big dilemma is that do I wear the coat to the Javits from the hotel or do I do coat check? Like, which is worse? Because the weather is always cold, but coat check’s a real hassle there.

Evan Gold (17:12)
Yeah.

Code check can be

a hassle. Get there early, right? That’s the key. Get there early. Avoid the lines. Yep, exactly.

Shelley E. Kohan (17:18)
That’s a good

idea. Well, I’m looking forward to seeing you and thanks for your tips on weather and giving us a little insights into what December holds for us and a little preview into next year. Always a pleasure having you on Retail Unwrapped

Evan Gold (17:35)
This was a pleasure and wish you, your family and all your listeners a happy and prosperous holiday and look forward to seeing you at NRF.

Shelley E. Kohan (17:43)
Excellent, thank you.

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O Tannenbaum…O Tannenbaum: Where Art Thou? https://therobinreport.com/o-tannenbaum-o-tannenbaum-where-art-thou/ Mon, 01 Dec 2025 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=110236 O Tannenbaum.O Tannenbaum Where Art ThouThe numbers are staggering: 85 to 90 percent of all artificial Christmas trees and holiday décor, including ornaments, come from China. Countries like Cambodia have become larger suppliers of holiday lights, but plenty still come from China. China is also responsible for some 40 percent of all the wrapping paper used in the world, a third of the cardboard used in packages and as much as 87 percent of all the tinsel.]]> O Tannenbaum.O Tannenbaum Where Art Thou

Coming this holiday to a selling season near you, retailers and consumers alike have said they are worried about shortages and stock-outs in gifts that would be under the tree, hit by tariffs and the supply chain shutdown this past spring. But what they should be really worried about is the tree itself, MIA, a victim of those same economic and political forces. Ditto for the ornaments and other holiday paraphernalia that usually define the season for most Americans. And when shoppers do find these things, they will be paying substantially more this holiday season. It’s the quintessential coal in America’s collective Christmas stocking.

The numbers are staggering: 85 to 90 percent of all artificial Christmas trees and holiday décor, including ornaments, come from China. Countries like Cambodia have become larger suppliers of holiday lights, but plenty still come from China. China is also responsible for some 40 percent of all the wrapping paper used in the world, a third of the cardboard used in packages and as much as 87 percent of all the tinsel.

A Perfect Holiday Storm

If you want to know why and how all of this happened, think of a perfect storm. Backtrack to this past spring when the first round of tariffs (you don’t hear many people in power talking about Liberation Day anymore, do you?) was announced. You remember those double and triple-digit numbers being tossed around like celebratory confetti with virtually every country on the face of the earth getting slammed.

The biggest hits went to China, to the tune of 125 percent at their peak in late April. Now, if you’re in the Christmas and holiday business—fake trees, ornaments, red-and-green bric-a-brac and all manner of yuletide flotsam and jetsam—you know that April is dead-center timing when you place your orders with Chinese factories for all this stuff.

And at 125 percent more, that’s exactly what didn’t happen. Company executives who had been to this Trump rodeo before knew that tariff numbers, indeed entire tariff and trade policies, were written on Magic Slate tablets and likely to be changed, altered and otherwise reversed at the drop of a social media post. So, in the meantime, importers did absolutely, positively nothing. They didn’t place orders with Asian factories, they didn’t put down any deposits for any orders, and they didn’t come up with alternative sourcing strategies because there weren’t any to come up with. Spoiler alert: There are no other places to get most of this merchandise, much less find domestic sources; they are pretty much non-existent.

“All factories, all retailers, all manufacturers stopped ordering, canceled orders … and the factories stopped producing,” said Chris Butler, chief executive of National Tree Company (who you’d think should know the situation), told the Washington Post. He said there was “basically a 30-day freeze,” referring to the April buying period after the first set of tariffs were announced.

And while the same thing happened across much of the consumer product spectrum, the window for most other holiday-destined merchandise wasn’t quite as critical. The slow-moving train for seasonal holiday goods is much tougher to start and stop than normal supply chains for apparel and other products. Since those triple-digit initial tariff days, things have calmed down a bit. Yes, retailers were predicted to recalibrate, although there was another flare-up earlier this fall when Trump moved back into his 100 percent phase. Then he dialed that back after meeting with Chinese leader Xi and essentially reset the tariff clock back to where it was before all this nonsense started.

Christmas Chinese Style

So, while other consumer products had easier—relatively easier—times, navigating these tariff waters, it was no such luck for the Christmas guys. The mad dash to produce all those goods in time was on deadline. The numbers are staggering: 85 to 90 percent of all artificial Christmas trees and holiday décor, including ornaments, come from China. Countries like Cambodia have become larger suppliers of holiday lights, but plenty still come from China. China is also responsible for some 40 percent of all the wrapping paper used in the world, a third of the cardboard used in packages and as much as 87 percent of all the tinsel. Tinsel, for god’s sake; the holiday essential.

Once the administration delayed the steep levy in April while negotiating with China, retailers, wholesalers and suppliers shifted to a more conservative approach. “That means holding less inventory or buying ahead less … and reducing the number of things that they produce,” James Gellert, the executive chairman of RapidRatings, a financial analysis firm, told the Post. The newspaper reported that imports from China in the Christmas decorations category in July, the last month for which U.S. Census Bureau data are available, “were down 14.3 percent since January and 5.7 percent year-over-year. The dollar value of those imports was down 12.5 percent since January and 10 percent compared with last year.” That’s with inflation and price increases factored in, by the way.

Cardboard boxes, perhaps the truest indicator of holiday shipments, dropped to their lowest third-quarter level since 2015, according to one report. Any further numbers are hard to come by at the moment, given the government shutdown and the lack of Census Bureau reporting.

Treeless in America

National Tree’s Butler told the Post, “I’m not saying shelves are going to be bare … but we certainly believe that supply will be lower than normal this year.” Other holiday product vendors told the Post similar stories about reduced ordering and lower inventory levels coming into the last quarter. Every one of them confirmed higher prices as a result, often landing in the high-teens range.

One retailer was particularly stressed out. Jared Hendricks, chief executive of Village Lighting, TreeKeeper and Santa’s Bags, three Christmas-themed retailers, said he has had to pay $750,000 to $1 million in tariffs, all of which he charged on a line of credit. “Usually, I wake up in a panic three, four, five times a night,” he said in a phone interview, in which the Post said his voice was shaking. “I’m just scared out of my mind. … I owe so much money right now and we just have to sell (to stay alive).”

There will be a Christmas this year, not to worry, Virginia. But it may very well be less sparkly.

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Holiday 25: Predicting Chaos https://therobinreport.com/holiday-25-predicting-chaos/ Tue, 25 Nov 2025 05:01:00 +0000 https://therobinreport.com/?p=109772 Holiday 25 Predicting ChaosEvery year numerous analysts, forecasters, pundits and prognosticators attempt to predict an upcoming holiday's retail performance. Typically, modest increases in sales are forecast. But what is it about this holiday, Holiday 2025, that may turn out to be very different?]]> Holiday 25 Predicting Chaos

Every year numerous analysts, forecasters, pundits and prognosticators attempt to predict an upcoming holiday’s retail performance. Typically, modest increases in sales are forecast. But what is it about this holiday, Holiday 2025, that may turn out to be very different?

  • What effect will sharply rising unemployment have on consumer spending?
  • What effect will sharply rising retail prices, driven by Trump’s precipitous and erratic trade war, have on consumer spending?
  • What effect will lack of availability of merchandise, again driven by a precipitous and erratic trade war, have on retail sales?
  • What effect will the specter of sharply increased health care costs in 2026 have on holiday 2025 spending?

Where will consumers shop this holiday and what will they buy? Will they buy seasonal and fashionable merchandise as they have in the past, or will they bias their purchases toward basic and commodity products? Will they move sharply down market as they did during Covid in 2020 and the 2008 recession? If the consumer outlook remains increasingly pessimistic, and, their disposable income this holiday is significantly impaired, what will that mean for total holiday sales?

In my opinion, retailers whose year-to-date performance has been positive like Costco, Walmart and Amazon among others will be fine. Poorly performing retailers like Macys, Kohls, JC Penney Target, and Saks Global, however, will continue to struggle as they have all year long. Prognosticators will have a much harder time this year accurately predicting outcomes this holiday. By Mark Cohen

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