As recently as just a few years ago, Bed Bath & Beyond did over $5 billion in annual retail sales. Tuesday Morning was doing close to $700 million a year before it closed. Christmas Tree Shops, privately owned before it also announced its closing, had a yearly estimated revenue of about the same level, $700 million. Throw in the home furnishings sales of a few other chains that have gone belly-up like David’s Bridal, Party City and Sears Hometown and you can add in another $100 or $200 million in sales, easy.

It’s the suppliers who are in the biggest mess. Big vendors to BBB might have done $100 million – some even more – a year with that single account.

Put it all together and that’s close to $7 billion in annual home furnishings revenue generated by stores that have been liquidated – or are in the process of being liquidated. And most of it has disappeared forever.

Because of more careful monitoring of accounts receivable throughout the ordering process, the money due to creditors from these bankruptcies rarely stretched into seven figures, much less eight. So, vendors did not get stung as badly as they had historically been tagged by previous retail bankruptcies.

But the bigger problem is the loss of annual top-line business with the closing of all these retail chains. Using the good old keystone equation of wholesale being about half of retail – an imprecise measurement to be sure but the best we’ve got – home furnishings vendors are looking at a shortfall of at least $3.5 billion in yearly sales.

And history would suggest that most of it will evaporate, never to be seen again.

The Law of Migrating Retail Sales

Consumer purchasing patterns are a funny thing. As often as people say they plan their buying and keep tight budgets on what they will spend, it rarely works out that way. The fact of the matter is that retailers are really good at driving business through advertising, sales, promotions, coupons and just being in plain sight as people drive to work or do errands. That big bad Bed Bath & Beyond coupon that arrived like clockwork every few weeks in American mailboxes was an amazing vehicle to get people to go to their local store and spend, often far more than they ever planned. BBB didn’t get to be so successful — $11 billion in annual sales at its peak in the 2010s – by sitting around and waiting for customers to show up.

Without all this promotional and marketing activity so much of this business simply disappears. Without that coupon, that one-day sale, that act-before-midnight-tonight blaring TV commercial, shopping loses its place as top of mind, replaced by Netflix, Uber Eats and a day at the beach.

This is especially true when it comes to home furnishings. Unlike absolutely necessary purchases like food and drugs or more aspirational buying for things such as new clothing and shoes, very few people really need a new set of towels, more cookware or dishes…or even bigger ticket items like rugs, furniture and mattresses. We may have a need to replace some of these – and most sales for home furnishings these days are replacement sales – but we can certainly wait a week, a month or even longer to do that. The fact that so few home furnishings brands drive sales themselves through advertising or marketing only adds to the perception that since those former behemoth retail brands are no longer promoting, it feels like nobody is promoting.

Ephemeral Retail

And if it seems like nobody is promoting, nobody is going to be selling. So, with Bed Bath or Tuesday Morning or the others no longer showing up on social media, email feeds or with coupons and circulars in mailboxes, that business simply isn’t happening anywhere else. This is not some theory, either. When Linens’n Things – BBB’s one-time closest competitor – went out of business in 2008 it was doing just shy of $3 billion a year in sales. But how much of that $3 billion migrated back to competitors like Bed Bath, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Target, TJX and that emerging thing called the internet? Looking at the top-line growth of those brands from that era and you’ll see small incremental gains but nothing like a cumulative $3 billion. If it was half of that, it was a lot.

This is not an isolated example. When JCPenney lost 25 percent of its revenues in just the first 12 months of the ill-fated Ron Johnson era, one would think a big chunk of that $4.3 billion in business would have gone across the highway to its closest competitor, Kohl’s. Nothing of the sort happened. Some of that revenue did trickle to Kohl’s, for sure, and some went to the other end of the mall to Macy’s but most of it just went up in a giant puff of smoke.

When Bon-Ton closed all of its 200 stores in 2018, other department stores – often in the same shopping center appealing to the same demographic – didn’t see much of a spike in their business. And the saddest example of business simply evaporating? It’s Sears of course, which at its peak had annual sales of over $16 billion. Yes, that includes Kmart, but even taking that out of the equation, that’s a lot of revenue from power tools, car batteries and washing machines. As it was disintegrating over the past two decades, some of that business went to competitors like Home Depot and Lowe’s and some to specialty chains like Auto Zone and Tractor Supply Co. But a lot of it simply went away.

Vexed Vendors

So, back to the present and this latest wave of retail elimination. It’s not like shoppers will have any shortage of places to buy stuff. Between strong national chains, ecommerce and direct-to-consumer sellers, there remain plenty of choices and nobody is going to be denied new percale sheets.

It’s the suppliers who are in the biggest mess. Big vendors to BBB might have done $100 million – some even more – a year with that single account. Even with Overstock’s takeover of the brand, it is not going to absorb anywhere near that amount of business. For suppliers of soft home, kitchenware, housewares, and the thousands of products that BBB crammed into its stores – and similar assortments at Tuesday Morning and Christmas Tree – there is simply no place to go to replace that amount of business.

Since most of these products are made offshore, we’re not talking about American factories closing and workers being laid off. There are unintended consequences to the supply chain ecosystem. The residual side effects will be widespread: Connect the dots and workers at ports handling less cargo, truckers hauling fewer loads to stores, and delivery services bringing online packages to homes.

The suppliers themselves will have to get smaller, leaner, and more aggressive — getting new business wherever they can. Many are likely to go out of business since their margins and cash reserves were not that great, to begin with.

That $7 billion decline in retail business – OK, call it $4 billion after some of it is absorbed by other retailers – only tells part of the story of 2023. The second wave will be all the home product suppliers who won’t make it through the year. America most certainly has a homeless crisis of graver consequences for our society overall, but for the home furnishings business, its latest crisis is just beginning.

This might come as a surprise to New Yorkers who are constantly on the prowl for a choice parking spot – an aspect of Big Apple life that, at times, can even turn bloody and violent – but the truth of the matter is that for vast swathes of the country, there is simply too much parking.

Vacant Space

Although some of us might cringe at the idea of trying to find a parking spot at the supermarket the day before Thanksgiving, at Best Buy on Black Friday, or at the mall on Christmas Eve Day, these instances are the exception rather than the rule. Aside from a few of these special outlier occasions each year, the truth is that most parking spots at major urban, suburban, and ex-urban retail locations are grossly underutilized. At the outer rim of many parking lots sit paved-over spots that rarely see any action – and Big Box retailers are beginning to take notice and think, literally, out of the box, about how to better use this idle real estate.

What is behind this glut of parking availability traces back to a mosaic of factors, but the “too much unused parking space” phenomenon is not unique to retail. An untold number of unused parking spots sit idle at residential complexes across the country and in major cities, many downtown garages sit nearly empty. Not only is all this needlessly paved-over land bad for the environment (asphalt traps heats and releases harmful pollutants into the environment), but it can also present a security threat (the notion of an “empty parking garage at night” almost immediately conjures up the idea of imminent danger); moreover, remote sections of parking lots seem to be among criminals’ favorite places for buying and selling contraband.

Car Culture

The surfeit of parking spots stems from our country’s nearly 100-year love affair with the automobile which translated, mainly in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, into local municipalities whipping up an array of arcane zoning codes that mandated minimum parking requirements for many types of real estate projects – all of which came at a time during the emergence and growth in popularity of the neighborhood mall and the first Big Box retail complexes.

Of course, beginning in the late 1990s, with the rise of ecommerce, fewer and fewer people needed to venture out to retail establishments as often as they had to in the past. Fast-forwarding to the 2020s, the rise in popularity of ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft only contributed to the same trend. But perhaps the biggest vector of change has been the move to remote work, which really accelerated during the pandemic. According to Donald Shoup, an urban planner at the University of California, Los Angeles who is a specialist in parking research (yes, such a field does exist!), there are as many as 2 billion parking spaces in the U.S. or seven spots for every registered vehicle. (Although why someone still inevitably parks right next to me each and every time I venture out in my vintage 1988 Rubinrot Mercedes 560SL coupe even though I purposely search for the most remote and inconvenient location possible on the lot so no one inadvertently swings their door into mine is still one of life’s great unsolved mysteries, but I digress…)

Big Lots

Fortunately, across the country, buoyed in part by local regulations which are easing or even eliminating minimum parking requirements, massive parking lot installations at major retail locations are getting a fresh look – some may even call it an urban blight makeover, which is why many retailers are bidding adieu to the days of endless rows of empty spaces and hello to a more creative use of that precious land.

According to the Sightline Institute, a champion of sustainable development in the Pacific Northwest, retail giants like Walmart have long realized that many of their locations overbuilt their parking facilities and are leading the charge in reimagining how to utilize the land in novel ways.

Take the colossal Walmart in Wood Village, Oregon, for example. It’s been on a mission to downsize its parking lot since the early 2000s. Even after a 45 percent expansion of the store, the management team managed to reduce the number of spaces by 36 percent. In the past couple of years, the store has reduced its parking spaces by a third from 1,200 spaces to 800. With all the extra space, the store has converted part of the erstwhile parking area into a dry port for container storage.

But Walmart is not alone. Macy’s, financially struggling from a downturn in foot traffic, unveiled a plan in 2017 to sell off parcels of extra parking and direct that cash back into its online market. “The fact of the matter is we don’t need the massive parking lots that we needed in the 1970s,” Doug Sessler, the head of Macy’s real estate division told analysts during an industry meeting at the time. Lowe’s, for example, has also looked to lease the space out to complementary businesses like carwashes, fast food, and other services that will attract customers to the area.

Repurpose, Reposition

With that in mind, here are five ways many malls and Box Retailers are making use of or at least thinking about what to do with all those unnecessary parking spaces:

1. Complementary Retail.
Retailers have been leasing or selling land previously dedicated to parking spots to stand-alone complementary retail operators. Of course, the gas station at the opposite corner of the retail complex has been a staple of retail operations for some time, but increasingly, retail operators are becoming bolder and more imaginative in what to do with this land. Oftentimes Target has sold the unneeded land to a developer that can put in drive-through coffee or fast food. They have even turned it into a mini strip mall that gets customers into the vicinity and, hopefully, thinking about items they may need that are literally just a few yards away. And with Starbucks planning on opening 2,000 new stores over the next three years, we can expect to see a lot more of this trend.

2. Community Green Spaces.
The idea of turning part of an underutilized parking lot into, well, a good-old fashioned park is an idea that is catching on. Not only does it bring families into the vicinity and make that Costco or Kroger run much more appealing, but it also makes the entire area much more inviting. Recently, the San Diego City Council voted to turn the unsightly South Palisades parking lot into a pedestrian-friendly plaza area and green space.

3. Temporary Uses.
Picture this: a drive-in movie theater on the same parcel of land where you park your car. Many retailers, stadiums, and other venues with large parking lots that go mostly unused are connecting with their local communities by sponsoring pop-up, 1950s-style drive-in movies. For example, last summer, in York, Pennsylvania, the renowned Pullo Family Performing Arts Center decided to turn its pavement into an open-air venue for screening “Top Gun Maverick.” Using the space to host summer basketball leagues or concert venues is also becoming much more common, which has led to “Parking Lot Programming” positions at many large malls and retailers.

4. Expansion.
Of course, many retail operators have used idle parking areas to expand their businesses if the economics warrant such a move. The Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, recently announced that it was building out a 320,000-square-foot water park, to be called “Mystery Cove.” Where Canadian Triple Five, the group that owns and operates the MOA, got the land was not a mystery at all: working with the city, it was able to reclaim seldom-used parking lots and an adjacent undeveloped parcel of land.

5. Return to Mother Nature.
In 2022, Nature, the esteemed scientific journal, published an urban sustainability paper entitled “Finding space for nature in cities: the considerable potential of redundant car parking.” It examined the multiple benefits of simply devolving idle parking areas back to nature. From addressing global warming and climate change to mitigating floods and improving overall community mental health, there is logic to creating more accessible nature preserves. The article argued that unused urban parking spaces might hold the key to improving urban quality of life indices in America’s inner cities. Accelerating these types of efforts seems to be in line with what Mother Nature is already signaling to us. Take for example the famous “Lake Chipotle” – a major body of water that appears during the spring snow melt in the parking lot of a Chipotle located in the East Isles neighborhood of Minneapolis. Locals, whose city is nicknamed “City of Lakes,” were quick to christen the slush pond-cum-parking lot with the name of the Tex-Mex fast-food purveyor that it serves. You have to openly wonder if Mother Nature just wants the land back so badly, maybe Chipotle should just indulge her.

Of course, almost all these decisions about what to do with idle parking spaces are based on economics. Fortunately, local governments and communities are increasingly open to partnering with retailers to envision how multiple stakeholders might come together to create the right mix of incentives and benefits to push along this transformation.

If you look up the word “Pop-tailer” in the dictionary, you will find…well, actually you won’t find anything. It doesn’t exist…until now. That’s because we are christening the term as a new breed of retail that combines a fun shopping environment with a merchandise assortment that largely reflects “wants” rather than “needs” and throws in a touch of whimsy as extra flavoring. And it’s most certainly targeted a younger customer.

The pop-tailer is the latest idea to capture shoppers’ imagination in a number of emerging retail formats. The origins of pop-tailing do go back quite a few years; it didn’t just suddenly appear. Credit Dollar Tree and Five Below with latching onto this concept early on, but the recent surge of other retailers going after this space is explosive with companies like Popshelf, Miniso, and others. This is a real business.

Defining Pop

What is a Pop-tailer? They are stores that sell largely impulse items…although some do carry household essentials. They tend to be largely private label, although you will find some brands and even well-known licensed names. And they offer mostly home products with a large assortment of toys and games and novelty products…although some have apparel, commodities and even food.

What they all have in common is a model designed to appeal to the shopper – and it’s a young mostly Gen Z shopper for the most part who probably didn’t know what she wanted when she walked into the store…but walked out with two bags full of things she decided she simply couldn’t live without. Think of those check-out aisles with all those grab-and-go items and then multiply that by an entire store.

Who’s Who in Pop-tailing

 Let’s look at the players, old and new.

• Dollar Tree: Many people group this retailer into the general dollar store category and while the name fits – and it does own the more traditional Family Dollar chain – Dollar Tree is really something else entirely. It doesn’t focus on consumables or household goods; instead, it targets seasonal goods, things for the holidays, and special events like weddings and a large assortment of toys and playthings. It has about 8,000 locations, and in a controversial move during the pandemic, it broke through its sacred $1 price ceiling to start carrying merchandise priced higher. Consumers don’t seem to have blinked much, and the store continues to test the limits of how high it can go. So far it doesn’t seem to have reached any barriers.
• Five Below: As the name says, its merchandise is generally below $5, but it too has pushed that up, sometimes above $10. Its main emphasis is on kid’s products, with toys, games, and playthings a prime focus. But there are also plenty of things for the grown-ups in its nearly 1,400 locations. It also has a very aggressive expansion plan in the works, with up to 200 additional locations in the works for this year on its way to 3,000 stores in the next few years.
• Popshelf: Dollar Tree competitor Dollar General clearly looked at its rival’s successful format and said it needed something in that space too. So, it started Popshelf in 2020, and it has already opened well over 100 locations with the parent company saying it will expand to 1,000 stores by the end of 2025. Popshelf does have the usual mix of impulse, seasonal, and kid’s merchandise but it also brings in more standard dollar store categories like food, household products, and other consumables. Prices are generally under $10 but will go above that from time to time.
• Miniso: An import from China, this nameplate just opened what it calls its U.S. flagship right smack in the middle of New York City’s Times Square in May. An international chain, unlike most of its competitors, it operates more than 4,500 locations in more than 90 countries. It now has about 70 stores in the American market, generally along the East and West coasts. While its prices break through the $10 mark on occasion, mostly it keeps it under that level. Again, the assortment is heavily in kids and novelty products, but it also has health and beauty as well as fashion accessory merchandise.
• Daiso: This chain is out of Japan, and it also plays on the international circuit with some 4,000 locations though the vast majority are in its home country. It now operates about 100 stores in the U.S., centered in California and where there are large Asian populations. It is more of a traditional dollar store format with consumables and household goods including kitchenware and toys, but it throws in a large amount of impulse merchandise just like its counterparts.

Ripple Effect

While you can make an argument to include some other retail brands  — maybe Primark in apparel or toy chains like Piq – these Pop-tailers are expanding and seem to have hit a retail nerve with shoppers looking for inexpensive, feel-good things. The concept of cheap-and-cheerful has been a foundation of retail since the early days, but it has taken on new relevance and scale with the emergence of these new players. Think there’s nothing new in retailing? You’ve failed this Pop Quiz.

They love our movies, our music, and our Coca-Cola. They eat our McDonald’s, fly on our Boeing jets, wear our Levi’s 501s and, use our iPhones. But when it comes to our stores…well, the track record is decidedly more mixed.

As much as American culture and the businesses behind them have had enormous success around the rest of the world, it has been a decidedly different story for some U.S. retailers. For every company that succeeds in Europe or Asia, there are many more that sculk out in the middle of the night, their tails between their merchandising legs. Big-name U.S. retailing companies like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target have all flopped in at least some (if not all) of their international expansion attempts.

Which is why the opening this month of RH England, the upscale home furnishings chain’s first location outside of its U.S. home base has to be one of the most eagerly anticipated – not to mention most closely watched – retail developments of the year and perhaps the decade on the global scene.

And there are those out there who think that if anyone can break the pattern of failed retail exports, it is RH. Then again, perhaps no other retailer in the business invites more amazement and skepticism over its unorthodox moves under CEO Gary Friedman than RH. Since taking over more than two decades ago, he took a small failing store known for its hardware (let’s not forget its former name Restoration Hardware), cleaning products, and whimsical tchotchkes and transformed it into nothing less than America’s number one luxury furniture and home furnishings chain.

Gary, Gary, Gary

And now to the same choruses of “What’s Gary up to now?” – he is looking to replicate that success overseas. The new store, Anyo Park, about two hours outside of London in the Cotswolds, is the first of a planned series of locations in Europe – France, Germany, Italy, and Belgium. Then onto Australia where one has to think will be RH’s beachhead into the Asian market.

As anyone knows who has recently been to an RH store – excuse us, the company prefers to call them Galleries – in New York’s Meatpacking District, along Chicago’s Gold Coast, in Buckhead in Atlanta, and in most other major urban markets, these are impressive places…contemporary urban palaces. They range in size from 40,000-square-feet on up, have at least one restaurant, and every detail is impeccably designed, often housed in repurposed historic buildings.

So, is the case with RH England, located in a 17^th-century castle on a 73-acre estate, complete with landscaped gardens, what the company says is the largest herd of white deer (anyone feel like counting?), a library with archival books and documents, a tea salon and, oh yes, a bunch of RH furniture and decorative accessories.

And that’s the thing: Anyone expecting an Anglicized version of the retailer’s signature merchandise or something scaled down to all those charming, quaint very British cottages will be disappointed. This new store…er, Gallery is full-tilt boogie RH. (Full disclosure, I have not seen the store in person yet, these observations are based on company pictures, press reports, and conversations with those who were there for the pre-opening party…itself a classic event worthy of RH lore.)

Retail Export Experts

Is RH’s venture the right way to approach opening a store outside your home market? You can essentially argue it both ways. On the one hand, England – and for that matter France, Italy, and elsewhere – doesn’t need another furniture store that looks and feels like the stores they already have…which this new RH most certainly does not. It’s the same strategy RH has used in the U.S., offering a discernibly different take on shopping for home furnishings. As much as Ethan Allen, Arhaus, or countless local independents target the same upscale shopper, it’s safe to say none of them look and feel like an RH.

Friedman is essentially assuming the customer for luxury home furnishings is no different around the world, just as customers are similar for other luxury brands like Louis Vuitton, Prada, Porsche, or even Apple. That would be consistent with his approach to position RH on equal footing with luxury brands, even if its path to those heights began downscale with laundry detergent and doorknobs.

Exporting a brand successfully to the U.S. is not necessarily just a luxury thing. Ikea has been enormously successful around the world with essentially the same model, tweaked for some local variances like sheet sizes and colors but with the same basic furniture, oddball product names, and meatballs.

More recently, mass fast-fashion brands like Zara and H&M, Uniqlo, Mango and deep discount grocers like Aldi and Lidl have all had successes in the American market with pretty much their standard operating plans.

Failure Is an Option

But the flip side of this retail coin is less of a success story. How many American retailers have succeeded overseas? More bluntly, how many American companies have tried to export their footprint largely unaltered – and fallen flat on their collective retail faces?

Walmart might be the poster child for this. The biggest retailer in the world – and undoubtedly one of the best at what it does – has failed miserably in one country after another, from Germany to South America to Japan to most recently…wait for it, England. And after each, Walmart has essentially said the same thing: we didn’t adapt well enough to the local market and kept thinking consumers would come around to our way of shopping. Walmart has had some successes outside the U.S. – in Mexico and China – but it would be the first to say it’s been a long grind to make it work.

And this is not always a matter of geographical distance. Target’s colossal failure in nearby Canada is one of the case studies on how not to listen to your new customers and try to force your way into the market.

Which is not to say it hasn’t worked. American chains like Nike, Gap, Victoria’s Secret, and, of course, Apple have all had successes overseas with their American models largely exported. It’s just that it seems there have been as many failures as successes.

But we are not just talking about American companies failing when going overseas either. There’s a long list of British supermarket chains that have come into the U.S. market and done, for lack of a better way to put it, rather miserable jobs. The upscale Japanese department store, Takashima, had a classic failure years ago in New York and who can forget Benetton’s invasion of seemingly every mall in America?

RHUK?

So, what does this mean for RH; what are the common denominators that define both success and failure? Retailing, as anyone in the business will be the first to tell you, is not an exact science. In fact, some will say it’s not much of a science at all… but that’s a topic for another conversation on another day.

If you look at what retail has exported itself into other countries and not gotten lost in translation, there does seem to be one compelling element: that retailer brought something to its new home that shoppers couldn’t get before

It wasn’t just another discounter with low prices or an apparel store with nice tops. And that may be what RH will bring to England and all the other places it plans to travel to. Its unabashedly full-on retail concept is unlike anything anybody’s seen there…just as it was here. Some Brits will respond and like what they see. Others will not…just as they did here. But they can be sure they haven’t seen anything like it. Call it the RH Factor…and it bloody well might work.

It’s gotten to the point that reports about mass shootings are almost a weekly occurrence on the nightly newscasts. Seemingly, no public or even semi-public venue is off-limits nowadays when it comes to this uniquely American form of mass violence. In fact, according to a recent Axios-Ipsos poll, gun violence is now Americans’ top public health concern, bigger than the opioid epidemic and cancer.

And it’s easy to see why.

Over the past couple of years, episodes of mass shootings resulting in four or more victims murdered by firearms, not including the shooter (the standard technical definition of a mass shooting as per the U.S. Congress) have erupted at churches, synagogues, schools, sports bars, nightclubs, grocery stores, and shopping malls to name just a few of the categories of public venues that have been targeted by mass murderers. In a recent four-day stretch alone from May 10 through May 14, 15 episodes of gun violence were recorded around the country in states from California to New Jersey, Louisiana to Indiana, and just about everywhere in between.

Retail at Risk

In the US, according to the Violence Project which keeps track of gun violence and mass murders, retail venues have been subject to a mass public shooting every decade over the past 60 years, although more than half of those incidents recorded have occurred in the last 15 years. Data from the Violence Project database show just how much more susceptible the retail industry has been to mass shootings than bars and restaurants, office complexes, schools, places of worship or government installations.

When it comes to retail locations, be they mom & pop stores, corner bodegas, department stores, shopping malls, or big box retail locations, the challenge for store operators has been balancing adequate security and a safe shopping experience with ease of access, the critical component in driving traffic and moving inventory. For large-footprint stores and malls where the entire idea is bringing lots of people together, the challenges are particularly vexing.

This tradeoff among competing interests – often dubbed in retail circles as the “Sales versus Security” conundrum – has presented a daunting set of challenges for industry executives. While malls and retail outlets were once synonymous with relaxed shopping and pleasurable visits, they are increasingly becoming known as America’s new killing fields, prime targets for those seeking to wage acts of violence with maximum impact.

On the Offense

What can be done to prevent or deter mass shooters from choosing retail locations as a place to unleash their violence? How can retail executives best position their physical stores so that customers feel free to enjoy the retail experience while not feeling unduly encumbered by layers and layers of security protocols, much like those found at airports and Federal buildings? The answers aren’t easy, and they often involve making conscientious tradeoffs between equally hard and distasteful alternatives.

While many brands are experimenting with a host of innovative solutions and implementing forward-thinking workarounds, others continue to struggle with this new reality that is sweeping across the retail landscape. No one has yet cracked the code as they all seek to find that ideal and delicate middle ground that balances store security with brand reputation, shopper experience, ease of access, and maximizing sales potential.

Retail industry groups have been leaning into this issue in a big way, attempting to pull their members along – many of whom recognize the emerging threat but bristle at the extra costs associated with hardening their stores. In its annual “Retail Security Survey” issued late last year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) found that “mass violence/active assailants” is a growing concern of nearly two-thirds of its members. The Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) has been active in promoting education around the issue and has actively encouraged its members to conduct regular active-shooter training exercises for staff. But while industry associations have been vocal about this issue, it’s at the management level of individual retail brands where the rubber meets the figurative road.

Secure and Safe

The Robin Report spoke off-the-record with several security officials experienced in securing large-footprint retail locations. These conversations were with security consultants that have worked with large venues including big box stores, as well as actual store managers, and all shared what types of new tactics and techniques are being deployed or experimented with as they all continue to grapple with America’s epidemic with mass shootings and its impact on retail.

Here is what they say is happening behind the scenes.

1. Enhanced Presence of Visible Armed Security Personnel
   Most stores have moved to augment their physical security presence. And while the presence of additional armed security personnel can provide a modicum of reassurance to shoppers, most analysts agree that there is a limit and it is important that stores strike a balance that avoids creating an atmosphere akin to a high-security facility. Nonetheless, many stores feel that having a larger and more visibly armed security presence is a reasonable tradeoff that communicates to shoppers that any potential violence can be shut down rapidly.
2. AI-Assisted Detection and Predictive Intervention Tech
   Additional security measures, such as advanced surveillance systems and access controls, are being discreetly integrated into retail spaces. AI-driven technologies are being installed to constantly scan store perimeters and alert security personnel ahead of time of any individuals approaching retail locations with visible weapons or satchels that could be potentially hiding longer guns. It’s an approach that is gaining traction as it allows for effective monitoring and response without overly intruding on the shopping experience.

   Other retailers have adopted or are in the early stages of experimenting with cutting-edge technologies to enhance security by using facial recognition that matches databases of known criminals with security protocols, alerting security personnel to their presence in real time. The limitation of these technologies, is of course, that many mass shooters are first-time offenders and unknown to the criminal justice system. And this is to say nothing of the myriad and likely thorny privacy issues that will become more acute as these technologies gain traction.

3. Beefed Up Store Communications
   Many stores are posting more signage alerting would-be mass shooters that might be staking out a location ahead of time. The presence of more visible and behind-the-scenes monitoring and security can be effective. Traditionally these types of warning placards were meant to discourage would-be shoplifters, but now they have a far more ominous target audience: would-be mass killers.

   Transparent communication with shoppers about security measures is recommended by many retail security consultants as a low-friction way to reassure consumers, build trust, and foster a sense of shared community and responsibility. At the heart of these preventive initiatives are a host of new communications strategies aimed at tapping into the public’s sense of shared community and experience, encouraging shoppers to notify store personnel if they spot individuals acting strange or suspiciously. Providing clear information on security protocols and emergency initiatives can also help alleviate concerns while ensuring a safer shopping experience.

4. Collaborative Partnerships
   To combat the rising tide of gun violence, retailers are also increasingly collaborating with local law enforcement agencies to enhance their security programs and training. Joint programs and information-sharing initiatives are enabling store security teams to engage in a coordinated response to potential threats with local police and sheriff departments. Regular communication channels with law enforcement professionals also facilitate the exchange of best practices and the implementation of up-to-date security protocols.

   By fostering stronger ties with local community policing, retailers hope to create a sense of enhanced collective responsibility for safety. Programs that promote dialogue, trust-building, and awareness can help identify potential threats and encourage community members to report suspicious behavior promptly.

5. Empowering and Better Preparing Store Employees
   Retail executives are also more heavily investing in training for all store employees from career management professionals to seasonal staff, so that they are all better equipped to handle a mass shooting incident. These programs seek to provide comprehensive training on situational awareness and response procedures while also empowering employees to recognize and report suspicious behavior that might contribute to early intervention and prevention. Companies are also establishing clearer communication channels and systems to alert employees in case of emergencies.
6. Innovation of Store Layout and Design
   In light of the increased potential of mass shootings, many retailers privately concede that they are rethinking store layouts to optimize visibility and minimize blind spots while facilitating ease of egress. Strategic placement of mirrors, transparent barriers, and unobtrusive security infrastructure can improve surveillance coverage while still maintaining an inviting atmosphere. Some store executives have even privately toyed with the idea of installing wall-mounted break-glass “firebox” styled mass shooting kits that would simultaneously sound a general alarm and provide easy access to equipment such as bullet-proof shields, first aid, and other useful items in the event of an active shooter incident.
7. Armed Employees
   Although it’s quite controversial, some major retail brands are considering testing programs that would train selected store employees to be ready to confront an active shooter. These employees would not only receive firearms training and concealed carry certification but undergo comprehensive training to prepare them to be able to react appropriately and swiftly in the case of an active shooter incident.

Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don’t

Of course, no retail establishment wants to spend too much time publicly talking about its “best-in-class” active shooter prevention infrastructure. Private polling initiated by many retailers in recent years has consistently shown that shoppers are increasingly turned off by the idea that they may encounter an active shooter situation, and no amount of communication about safety information and “what if” scenarios will assuage them from their basic belief that if a store is actually talking about this issue, they feel they are in danger and might as well go elsewhere or shop online.

It’s a real problem for retailers that isn’t going away anytime soon.

This one’s definitely for the “why hasn’t anyone done this yet?” files: After logging decades as arguably the top nail pro on the red carpet and runway circuit, and then launching a successful product line steeped in her healthy-ingredients POV, Deborah Lippmann is letting the masses in on all her many tricks and tips.

In fact, the “Deborah Lippmann Complete Course to the Perfect Natural Manicure”, unveiled in March on the digital platform Thinkific, is so packed with info, purchasers may never set foot inside their corner nail joint again. And if that happens, it will fully align the overall trends in the professional nail market, which has been on a downward trajectory since the pandemic.

Professional Nail Market in Decline

According to a report by Statista, as of 2018, the total market size for beauty salons in the U.S. providing hair, skin, and nail services, was $53.6 billion. Of that figure, nails accounted for 15.9 percent and the annual spend on nail salon services was $8.36 billion.

While $8.36 billion sounds robust, it really isn’t when you consider that it’s only marginally better than the numbers in 2013, when pro nail services clocked-in at $8.28 billion. And when your parent category is in decline, as the hair and salon industry is – it’s lost 2.3 percent per year from 2018 to 2023, according to IBISWorld – it’s easy to see how the nail sector gets dragged down with it.

Conversely, guess what’s booming? Global nail polish sales, which hit $15.2 billion last year, according to analytics platform StyleSage. Sure, some of those polishes might be tossed in a handbag and taken to the salon, but I’m guessing that’s only fraction. Mostly, it’s used at home, possibly by the very people Lippmann is targeting with her manicure course.

“With the economy, the last recession and during Covid, many people cut their salon visits and did their nails at home,” says Lippmann. “It was out of necessity, but also to save money.”

Summoning Your Inner Nail Tech

When Lippmann tells me she channeled the at-home nail novice while creating her course, she isn’t kidding. Mapped-out in ten extremely in-depth video training modules (Lippmann calls them “chapters”), it includes everything from tools and best practices for polish removal to filing and buffing, cuticle care and application of base coats, color and topcoats. And that doesn’t include the many helpful add-ons, like PDFs on the history of nail shapes.

Shot entirely in Lippmann’s New York City apartment, the course is emblematic of the way this unassuming nail guru runs her business. Despite her own personal success – this is a woman who was discovered by Bobbi Brown, was summoned to Paris by an on-tour Mariah Carey and counts Oprah, Lady Gaga and Cher among her many fans – Lippmann’s business is still owned and operated by just herself, her husband and brother.

“I’m in all the videos,” Lippmann says. “We shot it right in our home, and the whole thing took just a few months to put together. It was a family affair — we filmed and my brother edited.”

An Innovative Bargain That Quickly Pays for Itself

As a bit of an online-learning junkie herself, Lippmann says she’s surprised she didn’t come up with the idea for her course even sooner. Still, she’s the first out of the gate with a direct-to-consumer education offering by a foremost expert in her category. This is the nails equivalent of, say, the late, great Kevyn Aucoin teaching us how to do our makeup, or a Bliss Spa-era Marcia Kilgore showing us the ins and outs of giving a killer facial.

And given that the average cost of a basic salon manicure in the U.S. is close to $23, with a $200 purchase price, Lippmann’s course will quickly pay for itself.

And that’s before the generous gift with purchase. Valued at more than $100, it includes a ton of Deborah Lippmann tools, nail care products, base, topcoat and two polishes. “It honestly was a no-brainer to me,” Lippmann says of her massive GWP. “I want my customers to have what they need while they’re taking the course.”

While Lippmann’s too modest to say that she thinks other beauty experts of her ilk will dive into the course-creation pond, I’m guessing it’s only matter of time before my inbox gets flooded with news of similar ventures. Especially when they hear that Lippmann projecting 1500 first-year course purchases, and she’s already had interest from beauty schools looking to license the program for their aspiring nail techs.

But for now, Lippmann is focused on helping all the people who eagerly scoop up her award-winning Gel Lab Pro Polish and The Cure Cuticle Repair Cream learn to take their nail care into their own hands.

“I wanted to give the person who was struggling with at-home manicures confidence,” Lippmann says. “So, I just thought of them. What do they need?” So simple, and yet so smart.